Cost-based analysis of autonomous mobility services

The fast advances in autonomous driving technology prompt the question of suitable operational models for future autonomous vehicles. A key determinant of the viability of such operational models is the competitiveness of their cost structures. Using a comprehensive analysis of the respective cost structures, this research shows that public transportation (in its current form) will only remain economic in situations which allow substantial bundling of demand. In all other cases, shared and pooled vehicles serve the travel demand more efficiently. In contrast to the general opinion, shared fleets may not be the most efficient alternative due to higher efforts for vehicle cleaning. Moreover, a substantial share of vehicles may remain in private possession and use.

[1]  C. Barbu,et al.  Business Models of the Sharing Economy , 2018 .

[2]  Christian Laesser,et al.  Finanzierung des OeV in der Schweiz: Was zahlt der Nutzer, was die Allgemeinheit? , 2013 .

[3]  Kara M. Kockelman,et al.  Dynamic Ride-Sharing and Optimal Fleet Sizing for a System of Shared Autonomous Vehicles , 2015 .

[4]  Itf.  Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic , 2015 .

[5]  Peter Ulrich,et al.  Will Autonomous Vehicles Derail Trains , 2016 .

[6]  Daniel J. Fagnant,et al.  Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations , 2015 .

[7]  B. Nykvist,et al.  Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles , 2015 .

[8]  Zhenhong Lin,et al.  Estimated Bounds and Important Factors for Fuel Use and Consumer Costs of Connected and Automated Vehicles , 2016 .

[9]  Todd Litman,et al.  Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning , 2015 .

[10]  Markus Friedrich,et al.  Betriebskosten von Busverkehren schnell und genau ermitteln - vereinfachtes Kostenmodell liefert belastbare Ergebnisse / Fast but exact calculation of bus operation costs , 2008 .

[11]  Daniel J. Fagnant,et al.  PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: 1 OPPORTUNITIES, BARRIERS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 2 CAPITALIZING ON SELF-DRIVEN VEHICLES , 2014 .

[12]  Patrick M. Bösch.  Required Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Sizes to Serve Different Levels of Demand , 2016 .

[13]  L. Burns.  Sustainable mobility: A vision of our transport future , 2013, Nature.

[14]  Kay W. Axhausen,et al.  Explaining Mode Choice, Taste Heterogeneity, and Cost Sensitivity in a Post-Car World , 2016 .

[15]  Kara M. Kockelman,et al.  Operations of Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet for Austin, Texas, Market , 2015 .

[16]  Kay W. Axhausen,et al.  Autonomous vehicles: The next jump in accessibilities? , 2017 .

[17]  Peter White.  The Roles of ‘Conventional’ and Demand-Responsive Bus Services , 2016 .