Selecting a model to predict the onset of growth of Fagus sylvatica

To evaluate the impacts of climate change on the primary production of temperate deciduous tree species, the onset and cessation of the growth must be accurately described. The aim of this study is to find a model which predicts the onset of growth of Fagus sylvatica (European beech) accurately. Several models have been proposed for the prediction of the timing of budburst of woody plants. Most of these models have been evaluated for species other than Fagus sylvatica, and in some cases for flower buds. Six models were fitted to data on leaf unfolding of Fagus sylvatica, collected in the Netherlands over 57 years (1901 -68). All models require only temperature as input. For Fagus sylvatica, however, photoperiod may influence the timing of the onset of growth (...)

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