Connecting geographical distributions with population processes

The geographical distribution of a species is determined by a large number of complex processes operating over spatial scales spanning 10 orders of magnitude. Patterns in population processes have been described at numerous scales. We show that two patterns, measured at different scales, jointly allow us to infer heretofore unknown patterns in the distribution of demographic patterns across the geographical range of a species. The resulting model describes three fundamentally different modes of geographical variation in vital rates of populations. One mode is characterized by a positive nonlinear relationship between the maximum rate of population growth and the intensity of intraspecific competition across a geographical range. That is, populations that grow rapidly are also those where individuals experience the greatest per capita negative effect of the presence of other individuals. The second mode of behaviour is described by a negative nonlinear relationship between maximum growth rate and density dependence. Under this scenario, populations with low capacity to grow rapidly have highest intensities of intraspecific competitive effects. A third mode of behaviour is characterized by a weak positive relationship between growth rate and intraspecific competition, with very little geographical variation in maximum growth rate. A survey of studies relating temporal means and variances in population abundance for a variety of species indicate that the second mode of geographical variation in population dynamics across species ranges is the most common, though a few species appear to be characterized by the third mode.

[1]  H. Pulliam.  On the relationship between niche and distribution , 2000 .

[2]  Ian P. Woiwod,et al.  Temporal stability as a density-dependent species characteristic. , 1980 .

[3]  Mark V. Lomolino,et al.  Dynamic biogeography and conservation of endangered species , 2000, Nature.

[4]  E. Gilesleighjr.  The average lifetime of a population in a varying environment , 1981 .

[5]  Terry L. Root,et al.  ENERGY CONSTRAINTS ON AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS AND ABUNDANCES , 1988 .

[6]  Ganapati P. Patil,et al.  The gamma distribution and weighted multimodal gamma distributions as models of population abundance , 1984 .

[7]  Rob Channell,et al.  Trajectories to extinction: spatial dynamics of the contraction of geographical ranges , 2000 .

[8]  M. Hassell,et al.  Variability in the abundance of animal and plant species , 1982, Nature.

[9]  Timothy H. Keitt,et al.  Detection of Critical Densities Associated with Pinon‐Juniper Woodland Ecotones , 1996 .

[10]  Mark E. Ritchie,et al.  Populations in a Landscape Context: Sources, Sinks, and Metapopulations , 1997 .

[11]  T. Root,et al.  Environmental Factors Associated with Avian Distributional Boundaries , 1988 .

[12]  Wayne S. Kendal,et al.  Fractal scaling in the geographic distribution of populations , 1992 .

[13]  B. A. Maurer.  Geographical Population Analysis: Tools for the Analysis of Biodiversity , 1994 .

[14]  Brian Dennis,et al.  Analysis of Steady‐State Populations With the Gamma Abundance Model: Application to Tribolium , 1988 .

[15]  L. Taylor,et al.  COMPARATIVE SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS. I. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INTER- AND INTRA-SPECIFIC SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIANCE/MEAN POPULATION PARAMETERS , 1982 .

[16]  William A. Link,et al.  ESTIMATION OF POPULATION TRAJECTORIES FROM COUNT DATA , 1997 .

[17]  B. Dennis.  Stochastic Differential Equations As Insect Population Models , 1989 .

[18]  J. Lawton,et al.  Fractal geometry of ecological habitats , 1991 .

[19]  Robin P. White,et al.  Density Trends and Range Boundary Constraints of Forest Birds Along a Latitudinal Gradient , 1986 .

[20]  B. A. Maurer,et al.  A Geographical Perspective on the Biotic Homogenization Process: Implications from the Macroecology of North American Birds , 2001 .

[21]  Rob Hengeveld,et al.  The distribution of abundance. I. Measurements , 1982 .

[22]  Mark V. Lomolino,et al.  Range Collapse, Re‐Introductions, and Biogeographic Guidelines for Conservation , 1998 .

[23]  Terry L. Root,et al.  Atlas of Wintering North American Birds: An Analysis of Christmas Bird Count Data , 1988 .

[24]  W. Link,et al.  WITHIN-SITE VARIABILITY IN SURVEYS OF WILDLIFE POPULATIONS' , 1994 .

[25]  Ian P. Woiwod,et al.  Mean-related stochasticity and population variability , 1993 .

[26]  Rob Channell,et al.  Splendid Isolation: Patterns of Geographic Range Collapse in Endangered Mammals , 1995 .

[27]  J. Lawton,et al.  Range, population abundance and conservation. , 1993, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[28]  M. Bartlett,et al.  Stochastic Population Models in Ecology and Epidemiology. , 1961 .

[29]  T. Root.  Energy Constraints on Avian Distributions: A Reply to Castro , 1989 .

[30]  M. Villard,et al.  Geographic variation in abundance of North American birds , 1994 .

[31]  S. Pimm,et al.  Population variability of sparrows in space and time , 1996 .

[32]  Mark Bartlett,et al.  Stochastic population models : in ecology and epidemiology , 1962 .

[33]  J. Lawton,et al.  Variation in the Size of Animal Populations: Patterns, Problems and Artefacts , 1990 .

[34]  J. Lawton,et al.  Fractal dimension of vegetation and the distribution of arthropod body lengths , 1985, Nature.

[35]  Brian A. Maurer,et al.  Untangling Ecological Complexity: The Macroscopic Perspective , 1999 .

[36]  R. Macarthur,et al.  The Theory of Island Biogeography , 1969 .

[37]  L. R. Taylor,et al.  Aggregation, Variance and the Mean , 1961, Nature.

[38]  L. R. Taylor,et al.  Aggregation, migration and population mechanics , 1977, Nature.

[39]  J. Roughgarden.  Theory of Population Genetics and Evolutionary Ecology: An Introduction , 1995 .

[40]  L. Taylor,et al.  Synoptic Dynamics, Migration and the Rothamsted Insect Survey: Presidential Address to the British Ecological Society, December 1984 , 1986 .

[41]  N. Goel,et al.  Stochastic models in biology , 1975 .

[42]  Daniel Goodman,et al.  Viable Populations for Conservation: The demography of chance extinction , 1987 .

[43]  R. Holt,et al.  Alternative causes for range limits: a metapopulation perspective , 2000 .

[44]  N. Shigesada,et al.  Biological Invasions: Theory and Practice , 1997 .

[45]  G. C. Stevens,et al.  Spatial Variation in Abundance , 1995 .

[46]  Bruce T. Milne,et al.  Spatial Aggregation and Neutral Models in Fractal Landscapes , 1992, The American Naturalist.

[47]  L. Taylor,et al.  Variance and the large scale spatial stability of aphids, moths and birds. , 1980 .

[48]  Monica G. Turner,et al.  Landscape Heterogeneity and Ungulate Dynamics: What Spatial Scales are Important? , 1997 .

[49]  W. Link,et al.  ESTIMATING POPULATION CHANGE FROM COUNT DATA: APPLICATION TO THE NORTH AMERICAN BREEDING BIRD SURVEY , 1998 .