Evolution of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation to Persistent or Permanent Atrial Fibrillation: Predictors of Progression.

Introduction: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) eventually progresses to persistent and permanent AF. The predictors of progression from PAF to persistent and permanent AF are poorly understood. Methods: Electronic medical records of 437 patients with PAF were reviewed in a retrospective cohort study. Patients were followed in time and progression to persistent/permanent AF was recorded. Demographic, clinical and echocardiographic information was collected. A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of progression to persistent/permanent AF. Results: Over a mean duration of 57.3±55.9 months, 32.4% of patients progressed to persistent/permanent AF. Mean age of the population was 67.9±13.4 years with 57% males and 92% Caucasian. Univariate analysis identified higher body higher mass index (BMI), cardiomyopathy, diabetes, valvular heart disease (VHD), larger left atrial size (LA) and higher pulmonary artery pressure as predictors of progression. Multivariate logistic regression analysis larger left atrial size (OR 1.46, CI 1.05-2.04, P 0.002), cardiomyopathy (OR 2, CI 1.1- 3.3, P 0.003), and moderate to severe valvular heart disease (OR 3.3, CI 1.4-5, P 0.008) as significant predictors of progression to persistent/permanent AF. Conclusions: Our study shows that PAF patients with larger LA, valvular heart disease and cardiomyopathy predict progression of PAF to persistent/permanent AF. Higher BMI and cardiomyopathy predicted progression to persistent AF while larger LA size and VHD predicted progression to permanent AF.

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