Uncertainty analysis of LBLOCA for Advanced Heavy Water Reactor

Abstract The main objective of safety analysis is to demonstrate in a robust way that all safety requirements are met, i.e. sufficient margins exist between real values of important parameters and their threshold values at which damage of the barriers against release of radioactivity would occur. As stated in the IAEA Safety Requirements for Design of NPPs “a safety analysis of the plant design shall be conducted in which methods of both deterministic and probabilistic analysis shall be applied”. It is required that “the computer programs, analytical methods and plant models used in the safety analysis shall be verified and validated, and adequate consideration shall be given to uncertainties”. Uncertainties are present in calculations due to the computer codes, initial and boundary conditions, plant state, fuel parameters, scaling and numerical solution algorithm. All conservative approaches, still widely used, were introduced to cover uncertainties due to limited capability for modelling and understanding of physical phenomena at the early stages of safety analysis. The results obtained by this approach are quite unrealistic and the level of conservatism is not fully known. Another approach is the use of Best Estimate (BE) codes with realistic initial and boundary conditions. If this approach is selected, it should be based on statistically combined uncertainties for plant initial and boundary conditions, assumptions and code models. The current trends are going into direction of the best estimate code with some conservative assumptions of the system with realistic input data with uncertainty analysis. The BE analysis with evaluation of uncertainties offers, in addition, a way to quantify the existing plant safety margins. Its broader use in the future is therefore envisaged, even though it is not always feasible because of the difficulty of quantifying code uncertainties with sufficiently narrow range for every phenomenon and for each accident sequence. In this paper, uncertainty analysis for the Large Break LOCA (200% Inlet Header Break) of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) has been carried out. The uncertainty analysis was carried out for the peak cladding temperature (PCT), based on the two different methods i.e., Wilk’s method and the response surface technique. Their findings have also been compared.