From practices to behaviors: Estimating the impact of household behavior on space heating energy consumption

Energy consumption in residential buildings is a complex phenomenon that stems from the combination of technical features and practices of occupants. Despite the central role occupants play, long-term modeling exercises at large scale often lack behavioral realism and explicitness. This study shall focus on the integration of conservation behaviors in the long-term modeling of space heating energy consumption in the residential sector. Based on a recent survey on 2,012 French households, we shall compare three energy demand models: an engineering model with normative behavior, an engineering model that includes several space heating practices, and a statistical model that captures the impact of all variables (technical, practices and socio-demographic). Our results confirm the importance of behavior in the explanation of energy consumption and quantify the role played by explicit practices on one hand and socio-demographic variables on the other. Nevertheless significant differences can be observed between calculated and actual energy consumptions, suggesting several potential uncertainties in the calculations. Consequently, we investigate how these uncertainties might impact the results of a prospective study focused on behavioral changes.

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