Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives

Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications.

[1]  J.-U. Klügel,et al.  A Scenario-Based Procedure for Seismic Risk Analysis , 2006 .

[2]  G. Meek.  Mathematical statistics with applications , 1973 .

[3]  Robert J. Budnitz,et al.  Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts , 1997 .

[4]  Z. Wang,et al.  UNDERSTANDING SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK : A GAP BETWEEN ENGINEERS AND SEISMOLOGISTS , 2008 .

[5]  Charles S. Mueller,et al.  Documentation for the 2008 update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps , 2008 .

[6]  Lalliana Mualchin.  Development of the Caltrans deterministic fault and earthquake hazard map of California , 1996 .

[7]  C. Allin Cornell,et al.  The Case for Using Mean Seismic Hazard , 2005 .

[8]  N. Abrahamson,et al.  Empirical Response Spectral Attenuation Relations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes , 1997 .

[9]  Zhenming Wang,et al.  Comment on “Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates?” by Julian J. Bommer and Norman A. Abrahamson , 2007 .

[10]  C. Cornell,et al.  Disaggregation of seismic hazard , 1999 .

[11]  Zhenming Wang,et al.  Comment on “Sigma: Issues, Insights, and Challenges” by F. O. Strasser, N. A. Abrahamson, and J. J. Bommer , 2009 .

[12]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  Probability and Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard Analysis , 2005 .

[13]  Walter J. Silva,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL HARD ROCK ATTENUATION RELATIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, MID-CONTINENT AND GULF COAST AREAS , 2002 .

[14]  James N. Brune,et al.  Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis without the Ergodic Assumption , 1999 .

[15]  Praveen K. Malhotra.  Seismic Design Loads from Site-Specific and Aggregate Hazard Analyses , 2008 .

[16]  W. Milne,et al.  Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada , 1969 .

[17]  Gail M. Atkinson,et al.  Earthquake Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern , 2007 .

[18]  Ram S. Gupta.  Hydrology and hydraulic systems , 1989 .

[19]  Timothy J. Sullivan,et al.  Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses for Ground Motions and Fault Displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada , 2001 .

[20]  Carl Allin Cornell,et al.  Probabilistic Analysis of Damage to Structures under Seismic Loads , 1971 .

[21]  Ellis L. Krinitzsky,et al.  Earthquake probability in engineering—Part 2: Earthquake recurrence and limitations of Gutenberg-Richter b-values for the engineering of critical structures: The third Richard H. Jahns distinguished lecture in engineering geology , 1993 .

[22]  Lindell Ormsbee,et al.  Comparison between probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and flood frequency analysis , 2005 .

[23]  N. Abrahamson,et al.  Magnitude-dependent variance of peak ground acceleration , 1995, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[24]  R. L. Wesson,et al.  USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps , 2000 .

[25]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  Sigma: Issues, Insights, and Challenges , 2009 .

[26]  Zhenming Wang,et al.  Seismic Hazard vs. Seismic Risk , 2009 .

[27]  R. Mcguire.  Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis , 2004 .

[28]  Ellis L. Krinitzsky,et al.  Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures , 1995 .

[29]  J.-U. Klügel,et al.  Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants , 2005 .

[30]  W. B. Joyner,et al.  Equations for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Acceleration from Western North American Earthquakes: A Summary of Recent Work , 1997 .

[31]  S. Harmsen,et al.  Documentation for the 2002 update of the national seismic hazard maps , 2002 .

[32]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  The Challenge of Defining Upper Bounds on Earthquake Ground Motions , 2004 .

[33]  Zhenming Wang,et al.  Reply [to “Comment on ‘Communicating with uncertainty: A critical issue with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis’”] , 2004 .

[34]  K. Campbell.  PREDICTION OF STRONG GROUND MOTION USING THE HYBRID EMPIRICAL METHOD AND ITS USE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND-MOTION (ATTENUATION) RELATIONS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA , 2003 .

[35]  Arthur Frankel,et al.  Development of Maximum Considered Earthquake Ground Motion Maps , 2000 .

[36]  Andrew V. Newman,et al.  Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes? , 2003 .

[37]  Chen Yong,et al.  Seismic hazard and risk assessment , 2011 .

[38]  Lawrence L. Kupper,et al.  Probability, statistics, and decision for civil engineers , 1970 .

[39]  C. Cornell.  Engineering seismic risk analysis , 1968 .

[40]  Ellis L. Krinitzsky,et al.  Earthquake probability in engineering — Part 1: The use and misuse of expert opinion. The Third Richard H. Jahns Distinguished Lecture in Engineering Geology , 1993 .

[41]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates? , 2006 .

[42]  M. Hopper,et al.  Historical Seismic Activity in the Central United States , 2004 .

[43]  Xiaojun Li,et al.  Preliminary Analysis of Strong-Motion Recordings from the Magnitude 8.0 Wenchuan, China, Earthquake of 12 May 2008 , 2008 .

[44]  Baoping Shi,et al.  Communicating with uncertainty: A critical issue with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis , 2003 .

[45]  Kenneth W. Campbell,et al.  Near-source attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration , 1981 .

[46]  N. Abrahamson,et al.  Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA Ground-Motion Relations , 2008 .

[47]  Zhenming Wang,et al.  Seismic hazard and risk assessment in the intraplate environment: The New Madrid seismic zone of the central United States , 2007 .

[48]  Julian J. Bommer,et al.  Uncertainty about the uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis , 2003 .

[49]  Ellis L. Krinitzsky,et al.  How to obtain earthquake ground motions for engineering design , 2002 .

[50]  Hope A. Seligson,et al.  When the Big One Strikes Again—Estimated Losses due to a Repeat of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake , 2006 .

[51]  D. Perkins,et al.  National Seismic-Hazard Maps: Documentation June 1996 , 1996 .

[52]  Gail M. Atkinson,et al.  Earthquake Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America , 2006 .