Driving Forces behind the Growth of Per‐capita Car Driving Distance in the UK, 1970–2000

Abstract Although per‐capita car trip distance (measured in passenger‐km) and car driving distance (measured in vehicle‐km) in the UK have kept increasing, their growth rates slowed considerably in the 1990s when compared with the 1970s and 1980s. The paper investigates the main driving forces behind the changes in car trip and car driving distances, and it examines the determining factors for the slow down of growth in the 1990s on the basis of the analysis of data from the National Travel Survey (1975/76, 1989/91, 1992/94, 1995/97 and 1999/2001). In particular, it emphasizes the significance of changes in car ownership levels as a key driving force and attempts to separate this ‘car ownership effect’ from other effects. The log‐mean Divisia index decomposition method is applied to measure the relative contribution of each effect. Separate analyses are undertaken according to trip purpose. Other underlying causes, such as changes in fuel price and road capacity, are also examined.

[1]  M. Espey.  Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities , 1998 .

[2]  Patrick Bonnel,et al.  A METHOD FOR BREAKING DOWN AND MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF CORRELATIVE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES: AN APPLICATION TO THE EFFECTS OF URBAN SPRAWL, CAR OWNERSHIP AND TRANSPORT SUPPLY ON CHANGE IN THE MARKET SHARE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT. , 2000 .

[3]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition , 1998 .

[4]  John F Kain.  A Tale of Two Cities: Relationships Between Urban Form, Car Ownership and Use and Implications for Public Policy , 2001 .

[5]  Stephen Potter,et al.  TRAVEL PATTERNS AND JOURNEY PURPOSE , 1998 .

[6]  D. Graham,et al.  The Demand for Automobile Fuel A Survey of Elasticities , 2002 .

[7]  David Banister,et al.  ENERGY, QUALITY OF LIFE AND THE ENVIRONMENT: THE ROLE OF TRANSPORT , 1994 .

[8]  P. Rees,et al.  CHAPTER 2. FORECASTING ROAD TRAFFIC GROWTH: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIOS , 1998 .

[9]  Great Britain. Foreign Office.,et al.  Labour force survey , 1982 .

[10]  P. Rees,et al.  An Investigation Into the Effects of Various Transport Policies on the Levels of Motorised Traffic in Great Britain in 2006 , 1995 .

[11]  Lee Schipper,et al.  MEASURING THE LONG-RUN FUEL DEMAND OF CARS , 1997 .

[12]  P. Goodwin.  A REVIEW OF NEW DEMAND ELASTICITIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SHORT AND LONG RUN EFFECTS OF PRICE CHANGES , 1992 .

[13]  Ek Peng Chew,et al.  Perfect decomposition techniques in energy and environmental analysis , 2003 .

[14]  Patricia L. Mokhtarian,et al.  A Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel , 1997 .

[15]  Ilan Salomon.  CAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS HELP SOLVE TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS? IN: HANDBOOK OF TRANSPORT MODELLING , 2000 .

[16]  David Banister,et al.  ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TRANSPORT IN GREAT BRITAIN: MACRO LEVEL ESTIMATES , 1995 .

[17]  S Freeth.  NATIONAL TRAVEL SURVEY - TECHNICAL REPORT 1998 , 1998 .

[18]  B. W. Ang,et al.  A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies , 2000 .

[19]  Jeffrey Kenworthy,et al.  Cities and Automobile Dependence: A Sourcebook , 1989 .