A Streamflow and Water Level Forecasting Model for the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers with Requisite Simplicity

AbstractA forecasting lead time of 5–10 days is desired to increase the flood response and preparedness for large river basins. Large uncertainty in observed and forecasted rainfall appears to be a...

[1]  Andrew Jarvis,et al.  Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4 , 2008 .

[2]  E. Plate,et al.  Flood forecasting for River Mekong with data‐based models , 2014 .

[3]  Keith Beven,et al.  Forecasting flash floods using data-based mechanistic models and NORA radar rainfall forecasts , 2014 .

[4]  G. Paudyal,et al.  Evaluation of the Short-Term Processes Forcing the Monsoon River Floods in Bangladesh , 2005 .

[5]  Florian Pappenberger,et al.  Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin , 2011 .

[6]  Peter Bauer,et al.  The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction , 2015, Nature.

[7]  Jerome P. Charba,et al.  High-Resolution GFS-Based MOS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts on a 4-km Grid , 2011 .

[8]  M. Clark,et al.  Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow , 2004 .

[9]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Status of Automatic Calibration for Hydrologic Models: Comparison with Multilevel Expert Calibration , 1999 .

[10]  B. Koo.  A distributed continuous simulation model to identify critical source areas of phosphorus at the catchment scale : model description , 2005 .

[11]  Md. Nazrul Islam,et al.  Calibration of TRMM derived rainfall over Nepal during 1998-2007. , 2010 .

[12]  Stacey Dravitzki,et al.  Predictability of Heavy Precipitation in the Waikato River Basin of New Zealand , 2011 .

[13]  P. Webster,et al.  Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh , 2010 .

[14]  K. Beven,et al.  Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) , 2005 .

[15]  Todini,et al.  Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting , 2005 .

[16]  Abhinanda Roy,et al.  Development of Spatially Distributed Unit Hydrograph for Bharathapuzha River Basin , 2017 .

[17]  N. Ward,et al.  Hydro‐meteorological variability in the greater Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basins , 2004 .

[18]  M. Ek,et al.  Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water , 2011 .

[19]  Paul Cilliers,et al.  Requisite Simplicities to Help Negotiate Complex Problems , 2010, AMBIO.

[20]  James Westervelt,et al.  Model Evaluation Guidelines , 2001 .

[21]  Faisal Hossain,et al.  A Promising Radar Altimetry Satellite System for Operational Flood Forecasting in Flood-Prone Bangladesh , 2014, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine.

[22]  G. Corzo,et al.  River flow forecasting with artificial neural networks using satellite observed precipitation pre-processed with flow length and travel time information: case study of the Ganges river basin , 2009 .

[23]  Peter C Young,et al.  Advances in real–time flood forecasting , 2002, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[24]  Keith Loague,et al.  Changing ideas in hydrology — The case of physically based models — Comment , 1990 .

[25]  A. Biswas.  Management of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna System: Way Forward , 2008 .

[26]  Keith Beven,et al.  Changing ideas in hydrology — The case of physically-based models , 1989 .

[27]  M. Monirul Qader Mirza,et al.  Are floods getting worse in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins? , 2001 .

[28]  M. Shrestha,et al.  Systematic Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Products over the Brahmaputra Basin for Hydrological Applications , 2015 .

[29]  Mekonnen Gebremichael,et al.  Upstream satellite remote sensing for river discharge forecasting: Application to major rivers in South Asia , 2013 .

[30]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Data-based mechanistic modelling and the rainfall-flow non-linearity. , 1994 .

[31]  Florian Pappenberger,et al.  Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. , 2009 .

[32]  Giorgio Boni,et al.  A hydrometeorological approach for probabilistic flood forecast , 2005 .

[33]  K. Beven,et al.  Development of a European flood forecasting system , 2003 .

[34]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations , 2007 .

[35]  I. Yucel,et al.  Calibration and evaluation of a flood forecasting system: Utility of numerical weather prediction model, data assimilation and satellite-based rainfall , 2015 .

[36]  Yudong Tian,et al.  Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Estimations through Hydrological Modeling in IFloodS River Basins , 2017 .

[37]  B. Paul,et al.  Flood problems in Bangladesh: Is there an indigenous solution? , 1987 .

[38]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Top‐down and data‐based mechanistic modelling of rainfall–flow dynamics at the catchment scale , 2003 .

[39]  E. Lorenz.  Deterministic nonperiodic flow , 1963 .

[40]  P. Bates,et al.  Integration of high-resolution topographic data with floodplain flow models. , 2000 .

[41]  J. Arnold,et al.  HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF THE IROQUOIS RIVER WATERSHED USING HSPF AND SWAT 1 , 2005 .

[42]  Herbert Lang,et al.  Advanced flood forecasting in Alpine watersheds by coupling meteorological observations and forecasts with a distributed hydrological model , 2002 .

[43]  Yudan Jiang.  A Simple Streamflow Forecasting Scheme for the Ganges Basin , 2016 .

[44]  Florian Pappenberger,et al.  The Skill of ECMWF Precipitation and Temperature Predictions in the Danube Basin as Forcings of Hydrological Models , 2009 .

[45]  R. Koudstaal,et al.  Rivers, chars and char dwellers of Bangladesh , 2003 .

[46]  Faisal Hossain,et al.  Proof of Concept of an Altimeter-Based River Forecasting System for Transboundary Flow Inside Bangladesh , 2014, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing.

[47]  Jan-Hendrik S. Hofmeyr,et al.  Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management , 2013 .

[48]  Peter J. Webster,et al.  A 1–10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 2003–07* , 2010 .

[49]  A. Hossain,et al.  Application of Satellite Radar Altimeter Data in Operational Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh , 2016 .

[50]  David R. Maidment,et al.  Developing a spatially distributed unit hydrograph by using GIS , 1993 .

[51]  Peter J. Webster,et al.  PREDICTION OF MONSOON RAINFALL AND RIVER DISCHARGE ON 15-30-DAY TIME SCALES , 2004 .

[52]  Daniela Rus,et al.  Model-based monitoring for early warning flood detection , 2008, SenSys '08.

[53]  Faisal Hossain,et al.  Forecasting transboundary river water elevations from space , 2011 .

[54]  Keith Beven,et al.  Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales) , 2013 .