with a particular emphasis on coherent reliability systems. The method is based on the concepts of likelihood-ratios (LR), change of probability measure) and the bottleneck-cut in the network. Both polynomial and exponential-time Monte Carlo estimators are defined, and conditions under which the time complexity of the proposed LR estimators is bounded by a polynomial are discussed. The accuracy of the method depends only on the size (cardinality) of the bottleneck-cut, not on the topology and actual size of the network. Supporting numerical results are presented, with the cardinality of the bottleneck-cut I 20.
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