Effect of media-induced social distancing on disease transmission in a two patch setting

Abstract We formulate an SIS epidemic model on two patches. In each patch, media coverage about the cases present in the local population leads individuals to limit the number of contacts they have with others, inducing a reduction in the rate of transmission of the infection. A global qualitative analysis is carried out, showing that the typical threshold behavior holds, with solutions either tending to an equilibrium without disease, or the system being persistent and solutions converging to an endemic equilibrium. Numerical analysis is employed to gain insight in both the analytically tractable and intractable cases; these simulations indicate that media coverage can reduce the burden of the epidemic and shorten the duration of the disease outbreak.

[1]  Sheri L. Bergeron,et al.  Media Effects on Students during SARS Outbreak , 2005, Emerging infectious diseases.

[2]  O. Diekmann,et al.  On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations , 1990, Journal of mathematical biology.

[3]  C. DesRoches,et al.  The public's response to severe acute respiratory syndrome in Toronto and the United States. , 2004, Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

[4]  L. Perko.  Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems , 1991 .

[5]  Nick Wilson,et al.  Print Media Response to SARS in New Zealand , 2004, Emerging infectious diseases.

[6]  Shigui Ruan,et al.  Global analysis of an epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate , 2006, Mathematical Biosciences.

[7]  R. Steinglass,et al.  Role of health communications in Russia's diphtheria immunization program. , 2000, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[8]  J. Brownstein,et al.  Influenza A (H1N1) virus, 2009--online monitoring. , 2009, The New England journal of medicine.

[9]  P ? ? ? ? ? ? ? % ? ? ? ? , 1991 .

[10]  K. Khan,et al.  Spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus via global airline transportation. , 2009, The New England journal of medicine.

[11]  Gidon Y Perlman.  [The influence of an event in the Israeli media on the compliance of patients with influenza vaccinations in the winter of 2006-2007]. , 2009, Harefuah.

[12]  J. Watmough,et al.  Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. , 2002, Mathematical biosciences.

[13]  Eric Mykhalovskiy,et al.  The Global Public Health Intelligence Network and early warning outbreak detection: a Canadian contribution to global public health. , 2006, Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique.

[14]  Huaiping Zhu,et al.  An SIS Infection Model Incorporating Media Coverage , 2008 .

[15]  E O Ekunwe,et al.  How disease prevention fails without good communication. , 1994, World health forum.

[16]  Xiao-Qiang Zhao,et al.  Dynamical systems in population biology , 2003 .

[17]  Carlos Castillo-Chavez,et al.  Asymptotically Autonomous Epidemic Models , 1994 .

[18]  Phyllis E. Kozarsky,et al.  Health Communication during SARS , 2004, Emerging infectious diseases.

[19]  J. Jones,et al.  Early Assessment of Anxiety and Behavioral Response to Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A(H1N1) , 2009, PloS one.

[20]  Barkat-e-Khuda,et al.  Awareness of sexually transmitted disease among women and service providers in rural Bangladesh , 1997, International journal of STD & AIDS.

[21]  Huaiping Zhu,et al.  Media/psychological impact on multiple outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases , 2007 .

[22]  E O Powell,et al.  Theory of the chemostat. , 1965, Laboratory practice.

[23]  E. W. Mitchell,et al.  Public Response to Community Mitigation Measures for Pandemic Influenza , 2008, Emerging infectious diseases.

[24]  L. A. Rvachev,et al.  Deterministic models of epidemics for a territory with a transport network , 1967 .

[25]  Julien Arino,et al.  Quarantine in a multi-species epidemic model with spatial dynamics. , 2007, Mathematical biosciences.

[26]  G. G. Stokes.  "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[27]  Julien Arino,et al.  Diseases in metapopulations , 2009 .

[28]  Huaiping Zhu,et al.  The Impact of Media on the Control of Infectious Diseases , 2007, Journal of dynamics and differential equations.

[29]  Patrick Wallis,et al.  Disease metaphors in new epidemics: the UK media framing of the 2003 SARS epidemic , 2005, Social Science & Medicine.

[30]  Mohammad Shafiqur Rahman,et al.  Media and education play a tremendous role in mounting AIDS awareness among married couples in Bangladesh , 2007, AIDS research and therapy.