Modeling Spatial-Temporal Epidemics Using STBL Model

The Space Time Bilinear (STBL) model is a special form of a multiple bilinear time series which can be used to model time series which exhibit bilinear behavior on a spatial neighborhood structure. The STBL model and its identification have been proposed and discussed by Dai and Billard (1998). In this paper, we compare the STBL model with STARMA and single ARMA model. All problems are addressed by setting up the model in state space form and applying the Kalman filter. An application of the STBL model to epidemic surveillance data is given and the results com pared with those from other models.

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