Reliability apportionment approach for spacecraft solar array using fuzzy reasoning Petri net and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Abstract The reliability apportionment of spacecraft solar array is of significant importance for spacecraft designers in the early stage of design. However, it is difficult to use the existing methods to resolve reliability apportionment problem because of the data insufficiency and the uncertainty of the relations among the components in the mechanical system. This paper proposes a new method which combines the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN) to accomplish the reliability apportionment of the solar array. The proposed method extends the previous fuzzy methods and focuses on the characteristics of the subsystems and the intrinsic associations among the components. The analysis results show that the synchronization mechanism may obtain the highest reliability value and the solar panels and hinges may get the lowest reliability before design and manufacturing. Our developed method is of practical significance for the reliability apportionment of solar array where the design information has not been clearly identified, particularly in early stage of design.