Integrated Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in Northeastern Brazil

Societies in semiarid areas in developing regions are among those most vulnerable to climate variability and potentially most vulnerable to climate change. The vulnerability to climate variability is caused by the strong restrictions that limited water availability poses on the use of natural resources, by the generally low reliability of water availability and, on the other hand, an often appreciable density of population strongly depending on these resources with little short-term options to reduce the dependency. Reasonable conditions in wetter years support the persistence of population in the area; marginal or poor conditions in drier years and arrears in development hamper significant improvements in the quality of life. Regional tradition and adaptation to local conditions serve as experiences to cope with droughts. This may help to survive emergency situations, but does not really reduce vulnerability, as it does not reduce development deficits. Present-day climate conditions are already marginal to sustain societal demands; therefore, climate change poses a serious potential threat.