Challenges in risk assessment and predictive microbiology of foodborne spore-forming bacteria.

Mathematical description of the behavior of bacterial foodborne pathogens and concepts of risk assessment were first applied to spore-forming bacteria and specially to Clostridium botulinum with numerous works dealing with spores heat destruction to ensure the safety of canned foods or with their germination and growth probability in foods. This paper discusses two aspects which appear specific to pathogenic sporeformers in comparison to vegetative microorganisms, that is, firstly, the extreme intra-species biodiversity of spore-forming bacteria and its consequences for risk assessment and, secondly, the modeling of spore germination and outgrowth processes. The intra-species biodiversity of spore-forming bacteria has a great impact on hazard identification, exposure assessment and hazard characterization leading thus to an extremely variable individual poisoning risk for consumers. The germination and outgrowth processes were shown independent at the single cell level and although numerous studies were performed to study the effect of spores treatments and growth conditions on these two events, the mathematical modeling and the prediction of these processes is still challenging today. The difficulties to accurately assess the biodiversity and the germination and outgrowth processes of spore-forming bacteria lead to a substantial uncertainty in risk estimates related to the exposure to these microorganisms. Nevertheless, significant progress have been made these last years improving the relevance of quantitative risk assessments for spore-forming bacteria and decreasing the risk uncertainty. Despite these difficulties, risk assessment still constitutes a valuable tool to justify the implementation of management options.