Modelling the Relationship between Male and Female Pedestrian Accidents and Land Use Characteristics (Case Study : Newcastle upon Tyne, UK)

This study investigates the relationship between accident location and land use patterm in the city of Newcastle upon Tyne, England. This paper distinguishes between males and females of working ages, between weekdays and weekends and between working and leisure time. Data from the the UK Census 2001 showed that most pedestrian journeys to work started and ended in the same ward (an administrative area of approximately 10km2). Accident data were all accidents involving pedestrians of working age during period between 1998 and 2007. Generalised Linear models were developed using the number of pedestrian accidents as response variables and census and land use data as predictors. Sensitivity analysis showed that an increase of 1% in the proportion of retail land use in a ward will, on average, lead to an increase of between 24% and 68% in the number of accidents involving pedestrians of working age.

[1]  Robert B. Noland,et al.  Congestion and Safety: A Spatial Analysis of London , 2003 .

[2]  Linda Mountain,et al.  THE EFFECTS OF TREND OVER TIME ON ACCIDENT MODEL PREDICTIONS , 1997 .

[3]  B. Martin,et al.  Principles and techniques of predicting future demand for urban area transportation , 1961 .

[4]  D. Graham,et al.  Spatial Variation in Road Pedestrian Casualties: The Role of Urban Scale, Density and Land-use Mix , 2003 .

[5]  R C Harruff,et al.  Analysis of circumstances and injuries in 217 pedestrian traffic fatalities. , 1998, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[6]  Paul Mitchell Hess,et al.  Measuring Land Use Patterns for Transportation Research , 2001 .

[7]  Øyvind Bakke,et al.  Demographic and Environmental Stochasticity Concepts and Definitions , 1998 .

[8]  L Aultman-Hall,et al.  Toronto bicycle commuter safety rates. , 1999, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  R. Petch,et al.  CHILD ROAD SAFETY IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT. , 2000 .

[10]  V. Z. Sali,et al.  Principles and techniques of unit testing , 1982 .

[11]  Chris Park,et al.  The Environment , 2010 .

[12]  Piet Rietveld,et al.  Non-motorised modes in transport systems: a multimodal chain perspective for The Netherlands , 2000 .

[13]  P J Gruenewald,et al.  Demographic and environmental correlates of pedestrian injury collisions: a spatial analysis. , 2000, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[14]  Daniel A. Badoe,et al.  Transportation–land-use interaction: empirical findings in North America, and their implications for modeling , 2000 .

[15]  Mike Baxter,et al.  Generalised linear models (2nd edition) , by P. McCullagh and J. A. Nelder. Pp 511. £30. 1989. ISBN 0-412-31760-5 (Chapman and Hall) , 1990, The Mathematical Gazette.

[16]  Yves Guermond.  L'utilisation du sol [Rhind (David), Hudson (Ray), 1980, Land Use. Londres, Methuen] , 1982 .

[17]  C Wright,et al.  Conceptual Data Structures and the Statistical Modelling of Road Accidents , 1998 .

[18]  A. Metcalfe,et al.  The influence of urban land-use on non-motorised transport casualties. , 2006, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[19]  P. Jovanis,et al.  Spatial analysis of fatal and injury crashes in Pennsylvania. , 2006, Accident; analysis and prevention.