Does the pattern of population synchrony through space reveal if the Moran effect is acting

The populations of many species fluctuate in synchrony across large geographical areas. This synchrony is often attributed to the Moran effect, that is, shared environmental fluctuations across the region. In this article, I use a series of simple metapopulation models to show that the degree of synchrony among populations separated by different distances is strongly affected by the particular way that environmental stochasticity is represented in the models. Furthermore, when multiple types of stochasticity are acting simultaneously, the synchronizing effect of any one type is difficult to discern from the resulting pattern of population synchrony. These effects can be exacerbated under certain demographic conditions or if population dynamics are affected by interspecific interactions. In general, it should be extremely difficult to determine if synchrony is caused by the Moran effect using only the synchrony-distance relationship of natural populations.

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