Monitoring a temporal change of seismic velocity in a volcano: Application to the 1992 eruption of M

Multiplets, i.e. events with similar waveforms, are selected from shallow earthquakes recorded on Merapi volcano (Indonesia) before the eruption of February 2nd, 1992. Two multiplet families are found with their sources close to the summit. Their seismograms are analyzed using the Moving Window Cross Spectrum technique which measures the precise time delay between seismic phases in the entire seismogram. For both families of multiplets, a gradual decrease in the arrival times of coda waves is observed as a function of the date prior to the eruption: coda waves are becoming progressively faster (up to 1.2 per cent) as the time interval to the eruption shortens. This observation is interpreted as the consequence of an increase in the seismic velocity inside the volcano. The increase in velocity started in May 1991 and was observed until September 1991, 4 months before the eruption. This velocity increase may be related to an increase in pressure in the magma chamber or in the conduits and to the resulting closure of the surrounding cracks.