Optimal control of infectious disease: Information-induced vaccination and limited treatment

Abstract In this study, a nonlinear compartmental model for an infectious disease is proposed. The spread of information is considered due to spread of disease in the population. The dynamics of the information is modeled by a separate rate equation and it is assumed that the growth of the information depends on the density of the infective population. The model accounts for the effect of information on vaccination coverage during the epidemic outbreak when medical resources for treatment are limited. Further, considering information-induced vaccination and treatment as controls, an optimal control problem is proposed which minimizes costs incurred due to the disease burden and applied controls. The total incurred cost is determined by taking a weighted sum of cost of productivity loss due to disease and costs incurred in applying control interventions. A higher nonlinearity in cost is considered for information induced vaccination efforts. With the help of Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the control system is analyzed and optimal control profiles for the applied controls are obtained. We further numerically explore the optimal control problem. A comparative study is made by choosing following control strategies: (A) execution of only information-induced vaccination, (B) implementation of only treatment and (C) execution of both the policies simultaneously. We observe that the comprehensive use of control interventions reduces the severity of the disease burden and also minimizes the economic burden incurred due to these interventions. Further, the effect of the basic reproduction number on the proposed control strategies as well as on the dynamics of infectious diseases is investigated. The numerical results infer that the treatment is more effective and economically feasible for a mild epidemic, while the information induced vaccination is more efficient for a serious epidemic.

[1]  Donald E. Kirk,et al.  Optimal control theory : an introduction , 1970 .

[2]  Deborah Lacitignola,et al.  Qualitative analysis and optimal control of an epidemic model with vaccination and treatment , 2014, Math. Comput. Simul..

[3]  C. Castillo-Chavez,et al.  A note on the use of optimal control on a discrete time model of influenza dynamics. , 2011, Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE.

[4]  E. Coddington,et al.  Theory of Ordinary Differential Equations , 1955 .

[5]  Xianning Liu,et al.  Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function , 2008 .

[6]  Yasuhiro Takeuchi,et al.  Modeling the role of information and limited optimal treatment on disease prevalence. , 2017, Journal of theoretical biology.

[7]  C. Althaus Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa , 2014, PLoS currents.

[8]  M. Brandeau,et al.  Cost-effective control of chronic viral diseases: finding the optimal level of screening and contact tracing. , 2010, Mathematical biosciences.

[9]  X. Zou,et al.  OPTIMAL VACCINATION STRATEGIES FOR AN INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC MODEL , 2013 .

[10]  O. Diekmann,et al.  Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation , 2000 .

[11]  Prashant K. Srivastava,et al.  Nonlinear dynamics of infectious diseases via information-induced vaccination and saturated treatment , 2019, Math. Comput. Simul..

[12]  Semu Mitiku Kassa,et al.  The impact of self-protective measures in the optimal interventions for controlling infectious diseases of human population , 2015, Journal of mathematical biology.

[13]  Anupama Sharma,et al.  Modeling and analysis of effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of infectious diseases , 2011, Math. Comput. Model..

[14]  W. Fleming,et al.  Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal Control , 1975 .

[15]  John T. Workman,et al.  Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models , 2007 .

[16]  J. Robins,et al.  Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza , 2004, Nature.

[17]  Laijun Zhao,et al.  Interaction of media and disease dynamics and its impact on emerging infection management , 2014 .

[18]  Jonathan P. Caulkins,et al.  Keeping Options Open: an Optimal Control Model with Trajectories That Reach a DNSS Point in Positive Time , 2010, SIAM J. Control. Optim..

[19]  Christian L. Althaus Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo , 2015, PeerJ.

[20]  Yun Zou,et al.  Optimal and sub-optimal quarantine and isolation control in SARS epidemics , 2007, Mathematical and Computer Modelling.

[21]  Shingo Iwami,et al.  Optimal control strategy for prevention of avian influenza pandemic. , 2009, Journal of theoretical biology.

[22]  Anuj Kumar,et al.  Vaccination and treatment as control interventions in an infectious disease model with their cost optimization , 2017, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul..

[23]  J. Watmough,et al.  Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. , 2002, Mathematical biosciences.

[24]  L. Wahl,et al.  Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio , 2005, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[25]  G. Chowell,et al.  Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review , 2014, BMC Medicine.

[26]  H. Behncke Optimal control of deterministic epidemics , 2000 .

[27]  P. Manfredi,et al.  Vaccinating behaviour, information, and the dynamics of SIR vaccine preventable diseases. , 2007, Theoretical population biology.

[28]  Suzanne Lenhart,et al.  Optimal Control of An Sir Model With Changing Behavior Through An Education Campaign , 2015 .

[29]  Mark Gersovitz,et al.  The Economical Control of Infectious Diseases , 2000 .

[30]  S. Goldman,et al.  Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment , 2002 .

[31]  Herbert W. Hethcote,et al.  The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases , 2000, SIAM Rev..

[32]  G. Chowell,et al.  Optimal control for pandemic influenza: the role of limited antiviral treatment and isolation. , 2010, Journal of theoretical biology.

[33]  Xianning Liu,et al.  SVIR epidemic models with vaccination strategies. , 2008, Journal of theoretical biology.

[34]  Benjamin Armbruster,et al.  Optimal mix of screening and contact tracing for endemic diseases. , 2007, Mathematical biosciences.

[35]  D. Kirschner,et al.  Optimal control of the chemotherapy of HIV , 1997, Journal of mathematical biology.

[36]  David T. Stern,et al.  The economic impact of quarantine: SARS in Toronto as a case study , 2004, Journal of Infection.

[37]  Holly Gaff,et al.  Optimal control applied to vaccination and treatment strategies for various epidemiological models. , 2009, Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE.

[38]  Holly Gaff,et al.  Use of optimal control models to predict treatment time for managing tick-borne disease , 2011 .

[39]  J. Caulkins,et al.  Optimal Control of Nonlinear Processes: With Applications in Drugs, Corruption, and Terror , 2008 .

[40]  J. Wallinga,et al.  Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures , 2004, American journal of epidemiology.

[41]  M. E. Alexander,et al.  Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks , 2004, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.