The Navy's Probability of Raid Annihilation Assessment Process. Standards & Architecture and Systems Engineering Concept Model

Abstract : The U.S. Navy has established a Probability of Raid Annihilation (PRA) Assessment Process to be used for each new ship class. Papers presented at previous SIW meetings have described the PRA and the development of certain aspects of the PRA Assessment Process, including the PRA Federation Testbed. This paper provides an overview of the total PRA Assessment Process to illustrate how the process provides the PRA ship class results to meet OPEVAL requirements across ship classes in a consistent and adequate manner. The PRA Assessment Process as applied to each new ship class will build on the products and results, including the PRA Federation Testbed as implemented, from previous ship class work. To facilitate this reuse, all relevant material, collectively referred to as the PRA Assessment Process Standards and Architecture (PS&A), is documented in one module. The PS&A module is the roadmap for any new ship class's program manager and technical team to implement the PRA Assessment Process, including documentation and products. The PS&A shows how the steps in the PRA Assessment Process correlate to the steps in the FEderation Development & Execution Process (FEDEP) model: requirements, conceptual modeling, design, software development, integration, and execution. VV&A is not a separate step but overlays all of the steps in the FEDEP and in the PRA Assessment Process. The PS&A includes the documents and products associated with each FEDEP step, including the Systems Engineering Concept Model (SECM). The discussion with the SECM captures both the real world and simulated views. In addition, the SECM starts with a generic conceptual view and then granulates to specific applications. This approach takes advantage of what is common among the ship classes while capturing the critical differences as they relate to the ability of a single ship to defend itself against a threat raid.