NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex s...

[1]  Sim D. Aberson,et al.  Assimilation of High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Observations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter Using NOAA/AOML/HRD’s HEDAS: Evaluation of the 2008–11 Vortex-Scale Analyses , 2013 .

[2]  Jun A. Zhang Estimation of Dissipative Heating Using Low-Level In Situ Aircraft Observations in the Hurricane Boundary Layer , 2010 .

[3]  Mark D. Powell,et al.  Boundary Layer Structure and Dynamics in Outer Hurricane Rainbands. Part II: Downdraft Modification and Mixed Layer Recovery , 1990 .

[4]  S. Aberson,et al.  Thirty Years of Tropical Cyclone Research with the NOAA P-3 Aircraft , 2006 .

[5]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  On the Characteristic Height Scales of the Hurricane Boundary Layer , 2011, Monthly Weather Review.

[6]  Y. Weng,et al.  Performance of convection‐permitting hurricane initialization and prediction during 2008–2010 with ensemble data assimilation of inner‐core airborne Doppler radar observations , 2011 .

[7]  Naomi Surgi,et al.  The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA Multiyear Field Program for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts , 2006 .

[8]  Robert F. Rogers,et al.  Convective-Scale Structure and Evolution during a High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification , 2010 .

[9]  S. Lord,et al.  The Kinematic Structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) Determined from Nested Analyses of Dropwindsonde and Doppler Radar Data , 1993 .

[10]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Turbulence Structure of the Hurricane Boundary Layer between the Outer Rainbands , 2009 .

[11]  R. Atlas,et al.  Performance of the experimental HWRF in the 2008 Hurricane Season , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[12]  Robbie Hood,et al.  The Saharan Air Layer and the Fate of African Easterly Waves—NASA's AMMA Field Study of Tropical Cyclogenesis , 2009 .

[13]  M. Montgomery,et al.  A critique of Emanuel's hurricane model and potential intensity theory , 2008 .

[14]  Da‐Lin Zhang,et al.  The Effects of Dissipative Heating on Hurricane Intensity , 1999 .

[15]  Timothy A. Reinhold,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy , 2007 .

[16]  Mark D. Powell,et al.  Boundary Layer Structure and Dynamics in Outer Hurricane Rainbands. , 1990 .

[17]  S. Businger,et al.  The Morphology of Eyewall Lightning Outbreaks in Two Category 5 Hurricanes , 2008 .

[18]  H. Willoughby Tropical Cyclone Eye Thermodynamics , 1998 .

[19]  Kerry Emanuel,et al.  An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance , 1986 .

[20]  Joseph J. Cione,et al.  Sea Surface Temperature Variability in Hurricanes: Implications with Respect to Intensity Change , 2003 .

[21]  J. Knaff,et al.  A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid , 2011 .

[22]  J. Gamache,et al.  Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution , 2009 .

[23]  R. Rotunno,et al.  An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones [presentation] , 1985 .

[24]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  The Kinematic Structure of a Hurricane with Sea Level Pressure Less Than 900 mb , 1999 .

[25]  Yuqing Wang An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nested movable mesh primitive equation model: TCM3. Part I: Model description and control experiment , 2001 .

[26]  Stanley B. Goldenberg,et al.  Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics , 2012 .

[27]  James L. Franklin,et al.  The NCAR GPS Dropwindsonde , 1999 .

[28]  R. Atlas,et al.  The Experimental HWRF System: A Study on the Influence of Horizontal Resolution on the Structure and Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using an Idealized Framework , 2011 .

[29]  K. Emanuel Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Exchange Coefficients and a Revised Steady-State Model incorporating Eye Dynamics , 1995 .

[30]  Jeffrey D. Kepert,et al.  Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements , 2009 .

[31]  F. Turk,et al.  Multiscale Observations of Hurricane Dennis (2005): The Effects of Hot Towers on Rapid Intensification , 2010 .

[32]  George H. Bryan,et al.  The Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in Axisymmetric Numerical Model Simulations , 2009 .

[33]  P. Reasor,et al.  Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part II: Resilience in Shear , 2012 .

[34]  K. Emanuel,et al.  Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity , 1998 .

[35]  Stanley G. Benjamin,et al.  2009 HFIP R & D activities summary : accomplishments, lessons learned, and challenges , 2010 .

[36]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  Airborne Doppler Radar Observations in Hurricane Debby. , 1984 .

[37]  J. Hallett,et al.  Observations of the Distribution of Ice in Hurricanes , 1986 .

[38]  F. Marks,et al.  Stationary and Moving Convective Bands in Hurricanes , 1984 .

[39]  A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity , 2007 .

[40]  James P. Kossin,et al.  New Probabilistic Forecast Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification , 2011 .

[41]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico , 2000 .

[42]  Gustavo Goni,et al.  Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal , 2000 .

[43]  John F. Gamache,et al.  Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution of the Hurricane Inner Core Observed by Airborne Dual-Doppler Radar , 2000 .

[44]  Sylvie Lorsolo,et al.  Airborne Doppler Observations of the Inner-Core Structural Differences between Intensifying and Steady-State Tropical Cyclones , 2013 .

[45]  F. Marks,et al.  Impact of Physics Representations in the HWRFX on Simulated Hurricane Structure and Pressure–Wind Relationships , 2012 .

[46]  Wei Wang,et al.  Prediction of Landfalling Hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model , 2008 .

[47]  Christopher S. Velden,et al.  The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity , 2002 .

[48]  F. Marks,et al.  An HWRF-based ensemble assessment of the land surface feedback on the post-landfall intensification of Tropical Storm Fay (2008) , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[49]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Verification of Remotely Sensed Sea Surface Winds in Hurricanes , 2003 .

[50]  F. Marks,et al.  Multiscale Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic Structure from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites , 2012 .

[51]  Matthew D. Eastin,et al.  Two Distinct Regimes in the Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure of the Hurricane Eye and Eyewall , 2001 .

[52]  J. Knaff,et al.  A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins , 2010 .

[53]  Michael M. Bell,et al.  Observed Structure, Evolution, and Potential Intensity of Category 5 Hurricane Isabel (2003) from 12 to 14 September , 2008 .

[54]  H. Willoughby,et al.  Temporal Changes of the Primary Circulation in Tropical Cyclones. , 1990 .

[55]  Ryan D. Torn,et al.  The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools, and Some First Results , 2012 .

[56]  M. Montgomery,et al.  Hurricane boundary‐layer theory , 2010 .

[57]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  HWRFx: Improving Hurricane Forecasts with High-Resolution Modeling , 2011, Computing in Science & Engineering.

[58]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Observational estimates of the horizontal eddy diffusivity and mixing length in the low-level region of intense hurricanes , 2012 .

[59]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Upper ocean response to Hurricane Gilbert , 1992 .

[60]  J. Whitaker,et al.  Ensemble Data Assimilation without Perturbed Observations , 2002 .

[61]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin , 2003 .

[62]  R. Houze,et al.  Three-Dimensional Kinematic and Microphysical Evolution of Florida Cumulonimbus. Part II: Frequency Distributions of Vertical Velocity, Reflectivity, and Differential Reflectivity , 1995 .

[63]  David P. Jorgensen,et al.  Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980) , 1984 .

[64]  R. Rogers,et al.  Environmental Flow Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Structure Diagnosed from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites , 2013 .

[65]  P. Black,et al.  Surface Observations in the Hurricane Environment , 2000 .

[66]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Effects of Roll Vortices on Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer , 2008 .

[67]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities. , 1998 .

[68]  F. Marks,et al.  A Study of the Impacts of Vertical Diffusion on the Structure and Intensity of the Tropical Cyclones Using the High-Resolution HWRF System , 2013 .

[69]  F. Marks,et al.  Estimation and Mapping of Hurricane Turbulent Energy Using Airborne Doppler Measurements , 2010 .

[70]  G. Barnes,et al.  Inflow Layer Energetics of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) near Landfall , 2003 .

[71]  Shannon T. Brown,et al.  NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment , 2012 .

[72]  P. Black,et al.  Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer. Part I: Momentum Flux , 2007 .

[73]  R. Simpson Exploring Eye of Typhoon “Marge,” 1951 , 1952 .

[74]  R. Houze,et al.  Kinematic structure of convective-scale elements in the rainbands of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) , 2008 .

[75]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Hurricane Surface Wind Measurements from an Operational Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer , 2007 .

[76]  S. Aberson,et al.  The HWRF Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) for High-Resolution Data: The Impact of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations in an OSSE , 2012 .

[77]  Peter G. Black,et al.  The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry (1979) , 1995 .

[78]  C. Bishop,et al.  Cloud-Resolving Hurricane Initialization and Prediction through Assimilation of Doppler Radar Observations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter , 2009 .

[79]  Ralph C. Foster,et al.  Boundary-Layer Similarity Under an Axisymmetric, Gradient Wind Vortex , 2009 .

[80]  Owen Kelley,et al.  Tall precipitation cells in tropical cyclone eyewalls are associated with tropical cyclone intensification , 2004 .

[81]  David F. Jorgensen Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature Hurricanes. Part I: General Observations by Research Aircraft , 1984 .

[82]  S. A. Hs,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy , 2008 .

[83]  K. Ooyama,et al.  Numerical Simulation of the Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones , 1969 .

[84]  Jason Dunion,et al.  Rewriting the Climatology of the Tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea Atmosphere , 2011 .

[85]  Hugh E. Willoughby,et al.  Concentric Eye Walls, Secondary Wind Maxima, and The Evolution of the Hurricane vortex , 1982 .

[86]  Wei Wang,et al.  Large-Eddy Simulation of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone , 2009 .

[87]  E. Zipser,et al.  Secondary Wind Maxima in Hurricanes: Airflow and Relationship to Rainbands , 1995 .

[88]  Michael L. Black,et al.  Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Jimena of 1991 and Olivia of 1994: The Effect of Vertical Shear on Structure and Intensity , 2002 .

[89]  S. Aberson Large Forecast Degradations due to Synoptic Surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons , 2008 .

[90]  John F. Gamache,et al.  Dual-Aircraft Investigation of the Inner Core of Hurricane Norbert. Part I: Kinematic Structure , 1992 .

[91]  David S. Nolan,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Intensification from Asymmetric Convection: Energetics and Efficiency , 2007 .

[92]  E. Uhlhorn,et al.  Observations of Air-Sea Interaction and Intensity Change in Hurricanes , 2013 .

[93]  F. Marks,et al.  Mesoscale and Convective Structure of a Hurricane Rainband , 1983 .

[94]  Daniel P. Stern,et al.  Reexamining the vertical structure of tangential winds in tropical cyclones: Observations and theory , 2009 .

[95]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Alicia from Airborne Doppler Radar Observations , 1987 .

[96]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Air-sea exchange in hurricanes : Synthesis of observations from the coupled boundary layer air-sea transfer experiment , 2007 .

[97]  Robert W. Burpee,et al.  Vertical Motion Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Determined with Airborne Doppler Radial Velocities , 1996 .

[98]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  An Estimation of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989) , 2011 .

[99]  John A. Knaff,et al.  Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) , 2005 .

[100]  Unusually Strong Vertical Motions in a Caribbean Hurricane , 1994 .

[101]  U. C. Mohanty,et al.  Simulation of very severe cyclone Mala over Bay of Bengal with HWRF modeling system , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[102]  C. Velden,et al.  ARTICLES: The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. , 2004 .