Modelling and simulating unplanned and urgent healthcare: the contribution of scenarios of future healthcare systems.

The current financial challenges being faced by the UK economy have meant that the NHS will have to make £20 billion of savings between 2010 and 2014 requiring it to be innovative about how it delivers healthcare. This paper presents the methodology of a research project that is simulating the whole healthcare system with the aim of reducing waste within urgent unscheduled care streams whilst understanding the impact of such changes on the whole system. The research is aimed at care commissioners who could use such simulation in their decision-making practice, and the paper presents the findings from early stakeholder discussions about the scope and focus of the research and the relevance of stakeholder consultation and scenarios in the development of a valid decision-support tool that is fit for purpose.