Probabilistic Evaluation of Near-Field Ground Motions due to Buried-Rupture Earthquakes Caused by Undefined Faults

The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan has been reviewing the current Guideline for Earthquake Resistant Design of Nuclear Power Plants since July 2001. According to recent earthquake research, one of the main issues in the review is the design earthquake motion due to close-by earthquakes caused by undefined faults. This paper proposes a probabilistic method for covering variations of earthquake magnitude and location of undefined faults by strong motion simulation technique based on fault models for scenario earthquakes, and describes probabilistic response spectra due to close-by scenario earthquakes caused by undefined faults. Horizontal uniform hazard spectra evaluated by a hybrid technique are compared with those evaluated by an empirical approach. The response spectra with a damping factor of 5% at 0.02s simulated by the hybrid technique are about 160, 340, 570, and 800 cm/s/s for annual exceedance probabilities of 10, 10, 10, and 10, respectively, which are in good agreement with the response spectra evaluated by the empirical approach. It is also recognized that the response spectrum proposed by Kato et al. (2004) as the upper level of the strong motion records of buried-rupture earthquakes corresponded to the uniform hazard spectra between 10 and 10 in the period range shorter than 0.4s.