Predicting influent biochemical oxygen demand: Balancing energy demand and risk management.

Ready access to comprehensive influent information can help water reclamation plant (WRP) operators implement better real-time process controls, provide operational reliability and reduce energy consumption. The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), a critical parameter for WRP process control, is expensive and difficult to measure using hard-sensors. An alternative approach based on a soft-sensor methodology shows promise, but can be problematic when used to predict high BOD5 values. Underestimating high BOD5 concentrations for process control could result in an insufficient amount of aeration, increasing the risk of an effluent violation. To address this issue, we tested a hierarchical hybrid soft-sensor approach involving multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), and compromise programming. While this hybrid approach results in a slight decrease in overall prediction accuracy relative to the approach based on ANN only, the underestimation percentage is substantially lower (37% vs. 61%) for predictions of carbonaceous BOD5 (CBOD5) concentrations higher than the long-term average value. The hybrid approach is also flexible and can be adjusted depending on the relative importance between energy savings and managing the risk of an effluent violation.