Negation scope detection in sentiment analysis: Decision support for news-driven trading

Decision support for financial news using natural language processing requires robust methods that process all sentences correctly, including those that are negated. To predict the corresponding negation scope, related literature commonly utilizes rule-based algorithms and generative probabilistic models. In contrast, we propose the use of a tailored reinforcement learning method, since it can conquer learning task of arbitrary length. We then perform a thorough comparison with a two-pronged evaluation. First, we compare the predictive performance using a manually-labeled dataset. Here, reinforcement learning outperforms common approaches from the related literature, leading to a balanced classification accuracy of up to 70.17%. Second, we examine how detecting negation scopes can improve the accuracy of sentiment analysis for financial news, leading to an improvement of up to 10.63% in the correlation between news sentiment and stock market returns. This reveals negation scope detection as a crucial leverage in decision support from sentiment. Enhance sentiment analysis of financial news by detecting negation scopesImprovement of up to 10.63% in the correlation between sentiment and stock returnComparison across different sets of negation words and various methodsImplement reinforcement learning, Hidden Markov models, conditional random fields and rule-based methods

[1]  Clara Vega,et al.  The Impact of Credibility on the Pricing of Managerial Textual Content , 2014 .

[2]  Maite Taboada,et al.  Lexicon-Based Methods for Sentiment Analysis , 2011, CL.

[3]  Nasser M. Nasrabadi,et al.  Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning , 2006, Technometrics.

[4]  Dirk Neumann,et al.  Automated news reading: Stock price prediction based on financial news using context-capturing features , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[5]  Bill McDonald,et al.  IPO First-Day Returns, Offer Price Revisions, Volatility, and Form S-1 Language , 2013 .

[6]  A. Roth,et al.  Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria , 1998 .

[7]  Hsinchun Chen,et al.  A quantitative stock prediction system based on financial news , 2009, Inf. Process. Manag..

[8]  Elisabetta Fersini,et al.  Sentiment analysis: Bayesian Ensemble Learning , 2014, Decis. Support Syst..

[9]  José Salvador Sánchez,et al.  Index of Balanced Accuracy: A Performance Measure for Skewed Class Distributions , 2009, IbPRIA.

[10]  Alvin E. Roth,et al.  Modelling Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement learning in experimental games with unique , 1998 .

[11]  Andrew McCallum,et al.  An Introduction to Conditional Random Fields for Relational Learning , 2007 .

[12]  Clara Vega,et al.  Soft information in earnings announcements: news or noise? , 2008 .

[13]  Michael P. Wellman,et al.  Nash Q-Learning for General-Sum Stochastic Games , 2003, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[14]  Chenchuramaiah T. Bathala Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market , 2007 .

[15]  Robert Remus Modeling and Representing Negation in Data-driven Machine Learning-based Sentiment Analysis , 2013, ESSEM@AI*IA.

[16]  Jian Ma,et al.  Sentiment classification: The contribution of ensemble learning , 2014, Decis. Support Syst..

[17]  Jan Muntermann,et al.  An intraday market risk management approach based on textual analysis , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[18]  Samuel W. K. Chan,et al.  A text-based decision support system for financial sequence prediction , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[19]  Clement T. Yu,et al.  The effect of negation on sentiment analysis and retrieval effectiveness , 2009, CIKM.

[20]  Padmini Srinivasan,et al.  On the predictive ability of narrative disclosures in annual reports , 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[21]  Richard S. Sutton,et al.  Introduction to Reinforcement Learning , 1998 .

[22]  Stefan Feuerriegel,et al.  Analysis of How Underlying Topics in Financial News Affect Stock Prices Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation , 2016, 2016 49th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS).

[23]  Jan Muntermann,et al.  Intraday Stock Price Effects of Ad Hoc Disclosures: The German Case , 2007 .

[24]  Awais Athar,et al.  Sentiment Analysis of Citations using Sentence Structure-Based Features , 2011, ACL.

[25]  Stephen P. Ferris,et al.  The Effect of Issuer Conservatism on IPO Pricing and Performance , 2012 .

[26]  Stefan Feuerriegel,et al.  Detecting Negation Scopes for Financial News Sentiment Using Reinforcement Learning , 2016, 2016 49th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS).

[27]  Stefan Feuerriegel,et al.  News or Noise? How News Drives Commodity Prices , 2013, ICIS.

[28]  E. Henry Are Investors Influenced By How Earnings Press Releases Are Written? , 2006 .

[29]  Bo Pang,et al.  Seeing Stars: Exploiting Class Relationships for Sentiment Categorization with Respect to Rating Scales , 2005, ACL.

[30]  Robert L. Mercer,et al.  Class-Based n-gram Models of Natural Language , 1992, CL.

[31]  Emanuele Lapponi,et al.  Why Not! : Sequence Labeling the Scope of Negation Using Dependency Features , 2012 .

[32]  Stefan Feuerriegel,et al.  Enhancing Sentiment Analysis of Financial News by Detecting Negation Scopes , 2015, 2015 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[33]  Elizabeth Demers,et al.  Soft information in earnings announcements: news or noise? , 2008 .

[34]  Björn Gambäck,et al.  Negation Scope Detection for Twitter Sentiment Analysis , 2015, WASSA@EMNLP.

[35]  Yung-Ming Li,et al.  Deriving market intelligence from microblogs , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[36]  Tim Loughran,et al.  When is a Liability not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks , 2010 .

[37]  S. Feuerriegel,et al.  News sentiment and overshooting of exchange rates , 2016 .

[38]  Malcolm I. Heywood,et al.  Binary versus Real-valued Reward Functions under Coevolutionary Reinforcement Learning , 2010 .

[39]  Dragomir R. Radev,et al.  UMichigan: A Conditional Random Field Model for Resolving the Scope of Negation , 2012, *SEMEVAL.

[40]  Hinrich Schütze,et al.  Book Reviews: Foundations of Statistical Natural Language Processing , 1999, CL.

[41]  Richard S. Sutton,et al.  Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction , 1998, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[42]  Isaac G. Councill,et al.  What's great and what's not: learning to classify the scope of negation for improved sentiment analysis , 2010, NeSp-NLP@ACL.

[43]  Uzay Kaymak,et al.  Determining negation scope and strength in sentiment analysis , 2011, 2011 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[44]  P ? ? ? ? ? ? ? % ? ? ? ? , 1991 .

[45]  Franciska de Jong,et al.  Scope of negation detection in sentiment analysis , 2011 .

[46]  Lior Rokach,et al.  Negation recognition in medical narrative reports , 2008, Information Retrieval.

[47]  Andrew McCallum,et al.  An Introduction to Conditional Random Fields , 2010, Found. Trends Mach. Learn..

[48]  Lawrence R. Rabiner,et al.  A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition , 1989, Proc. IEEE.

[49]  Lillian Lee,et al.  Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis , 2008, Found. Trends Inf. Retr..

[50]  Dietrich Klakow,et al.  A survey on the role of negation in sentiment analysis , 2010, NeSp-NLP@ACL.

[51]  S. Sameen Fatima,et al.  Evaluating Sentiment Analysis Methods and Identifying Scope of Negation in Newspaper Articles , 2014 .

[52]  Fei Liu,et al.  Application of a clustering method on sentiment analysis , 2012, J. Inf. Sci..