Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change—A Multi-gas Investigation with WIAGEM-GTAPEL-ICM

Climate change is a long-term issue due to the long lifespan of greenhouse gases (GHG) and the delayed response of the climate system. This paper investigates the long-term economic consequences of both climate change impacts and mitigation efforts by applying the multi-regional, multi-sectoral integrated assessment model WIAGEM based on GTAP-EL coupled with the reduced-form multi-gas climate model ICM. We investigate emissions reduction paths to reach a radiative forcing target of 4.5 W/m2. Economic impacts are studied and compared with and without the inclusion of all GHG gases. We find that multi-gas emissions reduction causes less economic losses compared with a case where only CO2 emissions reductions would be considered.

[1]  J. Rotmans,et al.  Global Biogeochemical Cycles , 1999 .

[2]  A. Alan B. Pritsker,et al.  Introduction to simulation and SLAM II , 1979 .

[3]  Claudia Kemfert,et al.  Global economic implications of alternative climate policy strategies , 2002 .

[4]  R. Sausen,et al.  Periodically synchronously coupled integrations with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3/LSG , 1998 .

[5]  Jae Edmonds.  International emissions trading & global climate change : impacts on the cost of greenhouse gas mitigation , 1999 .

[6]  Zhongxiang Zhang.  International rules for greenhouse gas emissions trading , 1999 .

[7]  E. Maier‐Reimer.  The biological pump in the greenhouse , 1993 .

[8]  Thomas Bruckner,et al.  Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policies: Part 1 – Model Presentation , 2003 .

[9]  G. Klepper,et al.  Economic impact of climate change: simulations with a regionalized climate-economy model , 2001 .

[10]  K. Hasselmann,et al.  Transport and storage of CO2 in the ocean ——an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model , 1987 .

[11]  P. Wilcoxen,et al.  What to expect from an international system of tradable permits for carbon emissions , 1999 .

[12]  R. Voss,et al.  Climate Dynamics �2001) 18: 189±202 Ó Springer-Verlag 2001 , 2000 .

[13]  Alan S. Manne,et al.  A Multi-Gas Approach to Climate Policy - with and Without Gwps , 2000 .

[14]  Truong Truong,et al.  GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model , 2002, GTAP Technical Paper Series.

[15]  John M. Reilly,et al.  Multiple Gas Control Under the Kyoto Agreement , 2000 .

[16]  Jean-Marc Burniaux.  Incorporating Carbon Sequestration into CGE Models: A Prototype GTAP Model with Land Uses , 2002 .

[17]  K. G. Hooss.  Aggregate models of climate change: development and applications , 2001 .

[18]  F. Joos,et al.  The substitution of high‐resolution terrestrial biosphere models and carbon sequestration in response to changing CO2 and climate , 1999 .

[19]  J. Melillo,et al.  Multi-gas assessment of the Kyoto Protocol , 1999, Nature.

[20]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[21]  Richard S. J. Tol,et al.  New Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change , 1998 .

[22]  T. Wigley,et al.  Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios , 1992, Nature.

[23]  The liability rules under international GHG emissions trading , 2001 .

[24]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. , 1996 .

[25]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .

[26]  John M. Reilly,et al.  The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries , 1999 .

[27]  Thomas Bruckner,et al.  Climate System Modeling in the Framework of the Tolerable Windows Approach: The ICLIPS Climate Model , 2003 .

[28]  R. Tol.  Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates , 2002 .

[29]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  An introduction to simple climate models used in the IPCC second assessment report , 1997 .

[30]  R. Voss,et al.  Long-term climate changes due to increased CO2 concentration in the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3/LSG , 2001 .

[31]  J. Reilly,et al.  Comparing greenhouse gasses , 2001 .

[32]  Claudia Kemfert,et al.  An Integrated Assessment Model of Economy-Energy-Climate - The Model Wiagem , 2002 .

[33]  A. Ellerman,et al.  Tradable permits for greenhouse gas emissions : a primer with particular reference to Europe , 2000 .

[34]  O. M. Johannessen,et al.  The Challenge of Long-Term Climate Change , 2003, Science.

[35]  Thomas Bruckner,et al.  Reducing the Risk of Abrupt Climate Change: Emissions Corridors Preserving the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation , 2003 .

[36]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake , 1996 .

[37]  Stephen Sitch,et al.  Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios , 2001 .

[38]  T. Wigley,et al.  Future CFC concentrations under the Montreal Protocol and their greenhouse-effect implications , 1988, Nature.

[39]  Alan S. Manne,et al.  An alternative approach to establishing trade-offs among greenhouse gases , 2001, Nature.

[40]  Michael D. Mastrandrea,et al.  Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes , 2001 .

[41]  T. Rutherford,et al.  World Economic Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol , 2001 .

[42]  R. Giering,et al.  Sensitivity Study of Optimal CO2 Emission Paths Using a Simplified Structural Integrated Assessment Model (SIAM) , 1997 .

[43]  T. Wigley,et al.  A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations , 1994 .

[44]  Thomas F. Rutherford,et al.  Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model , 1999 .