Decision Analysis in Fish Hatchery Management

Abstract Most hatchery management decision problems are “wicked,” that is, they are multilevel and intellectually complex, involve interactions between different areas of analysis, and are often ill defined. Techniques of analysis commonly applied to management problems-operations research, cost-benefit analysis, econometrics, Bayesian analysis-are valuable, but limited. Basically, they are not decision-making techniques but assist participants to assess a situation, before undertaking the reconciliation process of arriving at decisions. In complex decision problems, participants often revert to “dodges and strategies” which attempt to minimize potential regrets and maximize utilities along certain limited and separable measures of benefits at the expense of overall optimality. In order to limit the extent of ineffectual and varied suboptimizing procedures in hatchery management it is important to clarify decision procedures in the context of vertical and horizontal linkages on a system analytical basis.

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