GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN PROPERTY CRIME RATES: A TEST OF OPPORTUNITY THEORY

ABSTRACT For more than two decades sociologists have suggested that variations in property crime rates in the U.S. are largely explained by opportunities for theft. Although well developed theoretically, existing aggregate level research has been constrained in its ability to operationalize the central components of the opportunity perspective. In this analysis, we attempt to improve on prior research in several ways. First, we introduce multiple measures for each of the central concepts of opportunity theory (motivated offenders, lack of guardianship, and suitable targets). Second, we demonstrate that our measures cleanly factor along the expected conceptual dimensions. Third, we test the ability of these factors to explain cross-sectional variation in county level rates of various property crimes. These models generally fit the data well, explaining between 66% and 75% of the variance for the more serious crimes of robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft, and for the most part performing as expected.

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