Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowing how agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent temperature and precipitation trends to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Longer run adaptations appear to have mitigated less than half--and more likely none--of the large negative short-run impacts of extreme heat on productivity. Limited recent adaptation implies substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments.

[1]  P. Karn The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Nepal , 2014 .

[2]  Maximilian Auffhammer,et al.  Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change , 2013, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.

[3]  Anthony Leiserowitz,et al.  Global perceptions of local temperature change , 2013 .

[4]  D. Lobell Errors in climate datasets and their effects on statistical crop models , 2013 .

[5]  D. Lobell,et al.  Climate and Crop Yields in Australia, Brazil, China, Europe and the United States , 2013 .

[6]  Teresa A. Myers,et al.  The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming , 2012, Nature Climate Change.

[7]  D. Zilberman,et al.  Adoption Versus Adaptation, with Emphasis on Climate Change , 2012 .

[8]  Benjamin F. Jones,et al.  Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century , 2012 .

[9]  Gerald A. Meehl,et al.  Mechanisms Contributing to the Warming Hole and the Consequent U.S. East–West Differential of Heat Extremes , 2012 .

[10]  M. Oppenheimer,et al.  Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States , 2012 .

[11]  Maximilian Auffhammer,et al.  Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption , 2011 .

[12]  J. Seinfeld,et al.  Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 2: Climate response , 2011 .

[13]  D. Lobell,et al.  Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 , 2011, Science.

[14]  Alan L. Olmstead,et al.  Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839–2009 , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[15]  M. Auffhammer,et al.  Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[16]  Merja Jalonen Adaptation to climate change , 2010 .

[17]  D. Lobell,et al.  Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture , 2010, Environmental Research Letters.

[18]  D. Lobell,et al.  Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[19]  R. Hornbeck,et al.  The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe , 2009 .

[20]  W. Schlenker,et al.  Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[21]  R. Dunlap,et al.  A Widening Gap: Republican and Democratic Views on Climate Change , 2008 .

[22]  L. Kilian The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks , 2007 .

[23]  D. Cutler,et al.  Evidence on early-life income and late-life health from America's Dust Bowl era , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[24]  O. Deschenes,et al.  Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the Us , 2007 .

[25]  Michael Greenstone,et al.  The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather , 2007 .

[26]  Maximilian Auffhammer,et al.  Integrated model shows that atmospheric brown clouds and greenhouse gases have reduced rice harvests in India , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[27]  Gerrit Hoogenboom,et al.  The influence of aerosols on crop production: A study using the CERES crop model , 2006 .

[28]  Stephen E. Fienberg,et al.  Degroot, Morris H. , 2006 .

[29]  Philip B. Duffy,et al.  Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate , 2006 .

[30]  Edward Miguel,et al.  The Long Run Impact of Bombing Vietnam , 2006 .

[31]  D. L. Kelly,et al.  Adjustment costs from environmental change , 2005 .

[32]  W. Michael Hanemann,et al.  Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach , 2004 .

[33]  D. Lobell,et al.  Climate and Management Contributions to Recent Trends in U.S. Agricultural Yields , 2003, Science.

[34]  W. Hanemann,et al.  Adaptation and Its Measurement , 2000 .

[35]  W. Nordhaus,et al.  The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply , 1999 .

[36]  David Zilberman,et al.  Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey , 1985, Economic Development and Cultural Change.

[37]  Jerry A. Hausman,et al.  Errors in Variables in Panel Data , 1984 .

[38]  M. Degroot Optimal Statistical Decisions , 1970 .

[39]  J. Viner The long view and the short : studies in economic theory and policy , 1961 .

[40]  P. Samuelson,et al.  Foundations of Economic Analysis. , 1948 .

[41]  W. Schlenker,et al.  The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather: Comment , 2014 .

[42]  M. Oppenheimer,et al.  Weather Anomalies, Crop Yields, and Migration in the US Corn Belt , 2013 .

[43]  S. Hsiang,et al.  GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS AND CLIMATE DATA : A USER GUIDE FOR ECONOMISTS 1 , 2011 .

[44]  D. Lobell,et al.  NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INCORPORATING CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY INTO ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, WITH APPLICATIONS TO U.S. AND AFRICAN AGRICULTURE , 2011 .

[45]  David B. Lobell,et al.  Climate change and food security : adapting agriculture to a warmer world , 2010 .

[46]  D. Lobell,et al.  Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change: What Do We Know? , 2010 .

[47]  T. Masui,et al.  Variation factors of global cropland requirements from the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) , 2009 .

[48]  J. Arbuckle Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll: 2015 Summary Report , 2007 .

[49]  Orley Ashenfelter,et al.  The Economic Impacts of Climate Change : Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather , 2007 .

[50]  Nordhaus,et al.  American Economic Association The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture : A Ricardian Analysis , 2007 .

[51]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Global climate projections , 2007 .

[52]  W. Schlenker,et al.  Identifying Non-linearities In Fixed Effects Models , 2006 .

[53]  John Bound,et al.  Measurement error in survey data , 2001 .