Contribution of individual-based coupled physical-biological models to understanding recruitment in marine fish populations

Annual publications involving the application of coupled physical-biological models for understanding fish recruitment processes have increased over the last decade. Sixty-nine papers were reviewed to assess the contribution these models have made to recruitment prediction and understanding. The majority of models reviewed were 2- and 3-dimensional numerical simulation models, although a limited number of 1-dimensional analytical models were included. Most models used a Lagrangian tracking algorithm to advect and diffuse particles within the model domain. The vertical and horizontal resolutions and temporal durations of the models varied widely. This review identified 3 categories of papers: explanatory, inferential and hypothesis generating. Reviewed papers were dominated by explanatory approaches. Assessment of the sensitivity of model predic- tions to the model parameters were rare, but not entirely absent in this group of papers. Inferential approaches were the next most common, and sought to infer the presence or role of a particular mechanism. Hypothesis-generating publications were the rarest, but perhaps have the most to con- tribute to a greater understanding of recruitment processes. An increase in the frequency of hypothe- sis-generating applications of coupled physical-biological models may be expected over time as the field matures and refinements to both the physical and biological processes included in the models are made.