MECH: A Model for Predictive Analysis of Human Choices in Asymmetric Conflicts

This paper presents a novel behavior model to characterize functional requirements and environmental constraints for attackers planning attacks in asymmetric conflicts (AC). The Monitor, Emplacement, and Command/Control in a Halo (MECH) model offers a flexible representation of the physical relationships between belligerents, based on behaviors and risk preferences. MECH supports automated reasoning of locational utilities of AC based on risk-informed human behaviors. We populate the model with a set of 77 features derived from visibility analysis, terrain and local population and show that it is effective for statistics-based classification of roadside attack locations and ranking of tactical values for situational awareness applications.