Physical fitness as a predictor of mortality among healthy, middle-aged Norwegian men.

BACKGROUND Despite many studies suggesting that poor physical fitness is an independent risk factor for death from cardiovascular causes, the matter has remained controversial. We studied this question in a 16-year follow-up investigation of Norwegian men that began in 1972. METHODS Our study included 1960 healthy men 40 to 59 years of age (84 percent of those invited to participate). Conventional coronary risk factors and physical fitness were assessed at base line, with physical fitness measured as the total work performed on a bicycle ergometer during a symptom-limited exercise-tolerance test. RESULTS After an average follow-up time of 16 years, 271 men had died, 53 percent of them from cardiovascular disease. The relative risk of death from any cause in fitness quartile 4 (highest) as compared with quartile 1 (lowest) was 0.54 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.32 to 0.89; P = 0.015) after adjustment for age, smoking status, serum lipids, blood pressure, resting heart rate, vital capacity, body-mass index, level of physical activity, and glucose tolerance. Total mortality was similar among the subjects in fitness quartiles 1, 2, and 3 when the data were adjusted for these same variables. The adjusted relative risk of death from cardiovascular causes in fitness quartile 4 as compared with quartile 1 was 0.41 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.20 to 0.84; P = 0.013). The corresponding relative risks for quartiles 3 and 2 (as compared with quartile 1) were 0.45 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.22 to 0.92; P = 0.026) and 0.59 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.28 to 1.22; P = 0.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Physical fitness appears to be a graded, independent, long-term predictor of mortality from cardiovascular causes in healthy, middle-aged men. A high level of fitness was also associated with lower mortality from any cause.