Scenarios and Forecasting
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Abstract This paper discusses scenarios based on two world views, each giving a perspective on the futurity of organizational actions. The first looks at a problematic situation as something to be clarified through rationalistic reasoning. Scenario building is examined as a way to turn intuitive knowledge of a problematic situation into clear research questions that may be explored by systems analysis and forecasting. However, a distinction must be made between the predictable and the indeterminate in a situation; in other words, a characterization of the future in terms of multiple scenarios. The scenario planner alternates intuitive exploration of the situation with rational analysis and forecasting in an iterative way until a satisfactory description of the future has been derived. An alternative processual perspective suggests that organizations construct their reality socially, in an ongoing conversation. Scenarios help organizations explore unknown territory by allowing the internal strategic conversation to be linked to other relevant conversations taking place elsewhere. In conclusion, scenarios introduce the required variety of ideas and also lead to a gradual alignment in understanding of what the new situation means for the group and what its collective response should be. Therein lies one of the fundamental dilemmas of organizational learning.
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