Probabilistic safety assessment: quantitative process to balance design, manufacturing and operation for safety of plant structures and systems☆

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has to date been successfully applied in various branches of technology. Rather than reviewing the details of development and applications, more general issues related to PSA and the specific use of them to balance design, manufacturing and operation for safety of plant structures and systems are addressed. Based on some industrial examples, insights are discussed and conclusions are given.

[1]  G. Schuëller,et al.  A critical appraisal of methods to determine failure probabilities , 1987 .

[2]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundation of Statistics , 1956 .

[3]  Eduard Hofer,et al.  A Survey of Expert Opinion and Its Probabilistic Evaluation for Specific Aspects of the SNR-300 Risk Study , 1985 .

[4]  Ian B. Wall,et al.  The practical application of PRA: An evaluation of utility experience and USNRC perspectives , 1989 .

[5]  S. A. Lloyd,et al.  Realisation of reliability from design to operation for offshore facilities , 1988 .

[6]  Harold S. Blackman,et al.  INTENT: a method for estimating human error probabilities for decisionbased errors , 1992 .

[7]  Stan Kaplan,et al.  ‘Expert information’ versus ‘expert opinions’. Another approach to the problem of eliciting/ combining/using expert knowledge in PRA , 1992 .

[8]  Detlof von Winterfeldt,et al.  Probabilities are useful to quantify expert judgments , 1988 .

[9]  Hans Jörg Wingender.  Reliability Data Collection and Use in Risk and Availability Assessment , 1986 .

[10]  W. E. Vesely,et al.  Incorporating aging effects into probabilistic risk analysis using a Taylor expansion approach , 1991 .

[11]  B. John Garrick,et al.  The approach to risk analysis in three industries: nuclear power, space systems, and chemical process , 1988 .

[12]  Helmut J. Pradlwarter,et al.  Fragility of primary piping of nuclear power plants , 1988 .

[13]  Peter Dörre.  Basic aspects of stochastic reliability analysis for redundancy systems , 1989 .

[14]  Peter Kafka,et al.  The Role and Use of Personal Computers in Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Decision Making , 1991 .

[15]  Robert D. Burns.  Wash 1400—Reactor safety study , 1980 .

[16]  Tuomas Mankamo,et al.  Dependent failure modeling in highly redundant structures—Application to BWR safety valves , 1992 .

[17]  Peter Kafka,et al.  Advances in probabilistic safety assessment , 1992 .

[18]  Ed M. Dougherty.  Credibility and uncertainty associated with accident management actions , 1992 .

[19]  Luis Lederman.  Accident sequences sensitive to human errors , 1988 .

[20]  P. Kafka.  Interface between structural and system analysis , 1982 .

[21]  Ali Mosleh,et al.  A systematic procedure for the incorporation of common cause events into risk and reliability models , 1986 .

[22]  G. Apostolakis.  The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. , 1990, Science.

[23]  J.-P. Bento.  Analysis of human performance problems at the Swedish nuclear power plants , 1988, Conference Record for 1988 IEEE Fourth Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants,.

[24]  J. Berger.  Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis , 1988 .

[25]  David H. Worledge,et al.  A nuclear power plant status monitor: RAPID/PSM software , 1988 .

[26]  Stojan Milivojević,et al.  The empirical failure rate and repair rate of PWR primary coolant pumps , 1989 .

[27]  Gerhart I. Schuëller,et al.  On the failure probability of pipings , 1991 .

[28]  J. B. Fussell,et al.  PRISIM at Arkansas Nuclear One—unit 1: Daily, in-plant use of PSA information , 1988 .

[29]  W. E. Vesely,et al.  Two measures of risk importance and their application , 1985 .