Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2003–2010

Objective: To estimate HIV incidence in the United States using a newly developed method. Methods: The analysis period (2002–2011) was broken down into 3-year periods with overlaps, and HIV incidence was estimated based on the relationship between number of new diagnoses and HIV incidence in each of these 3-year periods, by assuming that all HIV infections would eventually be diagnosed and within each 3-year period HIV incidence and case finding were stable. Results: The estimated HIV incidence in the United States decreased from 52,721 (range: 47,449–57,993) in 2003 to 39,651 (range: 35,686–43,617) in 2010, among males from 38,164 (range: 35,051–42,840) to 33,035 (range: 29,088–35,553), and among females from 13,557 (range: 12,133–14,830) to 6616 (range: 5825 to 7120). Conclusions: Using a simple and novel method based on the number of new HIV diagnoses, we were able to estimate HIV incidence and report a declining trend in HIV incidence in the United States since 2003.

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