Analysis on Cointegration and Co-movement of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China
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Based on cointegration theory the relation between electric power consumption and economic growth in China druing the period from 1978 to 2003 is researched. First, using the estimation results of cointegration between output values of all industries and the electrical energy used by them during this period, the long-term cointegration between the real GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and electricity consumption in China is verified; in short-term there is unidirectional Granger causality from electricity consimption to GDP growth while the Granger causality from GDP growth to electricity consumption does not exist. Next the realistic evidence of above-mentioned relation is analyzed and the Granger causality results between the output of a certain department and its electricity consumption properly explain the relation estimated above. Finally the H-P filter is applied to decompose the trend components and the periodic components from the series of GDPs and electricity consumptions, the estimation results show that not only the cointegration exists among the trend components, but also among the periodic components of the two series, it indicates that the cointegration between the electricity consumption and economy is related to the cyclical fluctuation of economy.