PROBABILISTIC DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT CONSTRUCTIONS. WORKING DAYS ON ROAD ENGINEERING 1990, PROCEEDINGS OF A CONFERENCE HELD IN EDE, THE NETHERLANDS, MAY 9-10, 1990. PART 1

This paper presents a calculation method for the design and evaluation of flexible pavement constructions by application of a first-order second-moment probabilistic approach. The method is based upon a structural deterioration curve related to calculated traffic load. The curve can be described by two parameters; curve shape and curve position. These parameters are related to variances around and reliability of the mean load and strength parameters. For design, predicted mean parameter values, associated variances and reliability intervals are placed in a number of matrices. For evaluation, the results of measurements can replace these design predictions. The subsequent calculation procedure is completely the same. The method permits a significantly better utilization of measurement results, especially where it concerns statistical data. This is of major importance when parameters are backcalculated from measurements with the falling weight deflectometer. Some examples of the application of the presented probabilistic calculation method for design and evaluation of flexible pavement constructions are given. Finally the consequences of the presented probabilistic calculation method on the design of flexible pavement constructions are presented. For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 836802. (Author/TRRL)