Hazards Identification and Analysis for Unmanned Aircraft System Operations

Many beneficial civilian applications of commercial and public small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) in low-altitude uncontrolled airspace have been proposed and are being developed. Associated with the proliferation of civil applications for sUAS is a paradigm shift from single-UAS visual operations in restricted airspace to multi-UAS beyond visual line of sight operations with increasing use of autonomous systems and operations under increasing levels of urban development and airspace usage. Ensuring the safety of sUAS operations requires an understanding of associated current and future hazards. This is challenging for sUAS operations due to insufficient mishap (accident and incident) reporting for sUAS and the rapid growth of new sUAS applications (or use cases) that have not yet been implemented. These applications include imaging, construction, photography and video, precision agriculture, security, public safety, mapping and surveying, inspections, environmental conservation, communications, parcel delivery, and humanitarian efforts such as delivery of medical supplies in developing nations. This paper will summarize research results in the identification of: 1.) Current hazards through the analysis of sUAS mishaps; and 2.) Future hazards through the analysis of a collection of sUAS use cases. The mishaps analysis will include the identification of mishap precursors and an analysis of their individual contributions to the mishaps as well as an analysis of worst-case hazards combinations and sequences. The future hazards are identified through an assessment and categorization of use cases for sUAS, the identification of associated paradigm shifts in terms of operations and new vehicle systems (both cross-cutting and for specific use case categories), the determination of future potential hazards (relative to the vehicle, ground control station, operations, and UTM system) arising from these paradigm shifts, and future potential impacts and outcomes (relative to the vehicle, other vehicles, people, ground infrastructure, and the environment). Key findings from these analyses are also summarized. The analysis results are then used to develop a set of combined (current and future) hazards for assessing risk.