Interpretation of winter warming on Northern Hemisphere continents in 1977-94

Abstract Northern Hemisphere December–March near-surface temperature and pressure anomalies during 1977–94 relative to those during 1946–76 are considered. To a first approximation these anomalies can be decomposed into two components. The first one reaches its maximum during 1977–88. The main features of the anomalies of 1977–88 can be obtained as the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) response to sea surface temperature anomalies observed during that period. The second component reaches its maximum in 1989–94. The main features of anomalies of 1989–94 relative to 1977–88 can be obtained as the AGCM response to lower-stratosphere ozone depletion observed in 1989–94.

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