An Analytical Model for Generation Expansion Planning in Competitive Environment based on Dynamic Balance between Energy Supply and Demand

Generation expansion planning (GEP) in the competit iv environment of electric industry is an importan t d complex problem, which is normally performed for ab out the next 10-30 years horizon. This problem has presented a challenge for both market managers and suppliers regarding the safe provision of loads and acquiring minimum profit for suppliers over the pla nning interval. In this paper, the aim is to establ ish dynamic balance between energy supply and demand by adjustm ent and optimal design of GEP over the horizon of s tudy such that the expected profit to be provided for ge nerating plants. To do so, in this paper the uncert ainties of demand and system capacity have been modelled throu g two stochastic processes. In addition, the marke t price dynamics and their mutual effects on the GEP are co nsidered. Based on this model, the intention of pri vate sectors and their influences on the obtained result s are observable. This nonlinear dynamic problem is solved using an optimization method based on genetic algor ithm. The efficiency and ability of the proposed me thod is examined on a test power system.