Estimation of survival probability for a ship in beam seas using the safe basin

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to analyze the nonlinear ship roll motion equation and the main parameters that induce ship capsizing in beam seas, estimate the survival probability of a ferry in random seas and to find out a risk assessment method for the ship’s intact stability. A single degree of freedom (1-DOF) dynamic system of ship rolling in beam seas is investigated and the nonlinear differential equation is solved in the time domain by the fourth order Runge–Kutta algorithm. The survival probability of a ferry in beam seas is investigated using the theory of “safe basin”. The survival probability is calculated by estimating erosion of “safe basin” during ship rolling motion by Monte Carlo simulations. From the results it can be concluded that the survival probability of a ship in beam sea condition can be predicted by combining Monte Carlo simulations and the theory of “safe basin”.

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