The Determinative Factors of the FMS Patterns: A Comparative Analysis among Four Worldwide Groups

Fixed-mobile substitution is an irresistible trend throughout the world.However in the process of FMS,the patterns of fixed to mobile substitution varies with time and are quite different from one place to the other.This paper set up regression modles to explore the relationship between the demand for fixed and for mobile ,based on the fixed line penetration and mobile penetration from four groups of countries,G7,NIE,ASEAN and BRIC which are divided by the level of telecommunication development.The determinative factors that affect the patterns,the degree and the substitution rate of FMS are studied. models to prove the relationship between the level of economic development and the FMS patterns,not to mention the other factors which play also an important role. The mobile,with its convenience and privacy,will become the dominant modes of communication,and the fixed to mobile substitution can not be ignored,but the specific degree of FMS,the speed of substitution and even the alternative mode varies with the time and place.Based on this piont,this paper makes use of relevant telecommunications data,and set up related models to further explore what factors affect the patterns,speed,degree of FMS,with the hope of providing the coorresponding operators of strategic direction.