Implementation and validation of a new operational wave forecasting system of the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

Within the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) an operational wave 10 forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented by the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) and evaluated through a series of pre-operational tests and subsequently for one full year of simulations (2014). The system is based on the WAM model and it has been developed as a nested sequence of two computational grids to ensure that occasional remote swell propagating from the North Atlantic is correctly entering into the Mediterranean Sea through the Gibraltar Strait. The Mediterranean model has a grid spacing of 1/24. It is driven with 6-hourly analysis and 5-days forecast 15 10m ECMWF winds. It accounts for shoaling and refraction due to bathymetry and surface currents which are provided in off-line mode by CMEMS. Extensive statistics on the system performance have been calculated by comparing model results with in-situ and satellite observations. Overall, the significant wave height is accurately simulated by the model while less accurate but reasonably good results are obtained for the mean wave period. In both cases, the model performs optimally at offshore wave buoy locations and well-exposed Mediterranean sub-regions. Within enclosed basins and near the coast, 20 unresolved topography by the wind and wave models and fetch limitations cause the wave model performance to deteriorate. Model performance is better in winter when the wave conditions are well-defined. On the whole, the new forecast system provides reliable forecasts. Future improvements include data assimilation and higher resolution wind forcing.

[1]  A. Benetazzo,et al.  Scratching beneath the surface while coupling atmosphere, ocean and waves: Analysis of a dense water formation event , 2016 .

[2]  A. Etemad-Shahidi,et al.  Evaluation of ECMWF wind data for wave hindcast in Chabahar zone , 2016 .

[3]  A. Benetazzo,et al.  Wave modelling in coastal and inner seas , 2018, Progress in Oceanography.

[4]  Luigi Cavaleri,et al.  Wind and wave predictions in the Adriatic Sea , 2009 .

[5]  J. Bidlot,et al.  User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III R version 4.18 , 2014 .

[6]  The Propagation of Wind Errors Through Ocean Wave Hindcasts , 1996 .

[7]  John C. Warner,et al.  Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea , 2012 .

[9]  G. Korres,et al.  Wave climate of the Hellenic Seas obtained from a wave hindcast for the period 1960–2001 , 2015, Ocean Dynamics.

[10]  N. Booij,et al.  A third-generation wave model for coastal regions-1 , 1999 .

[11]  Luigi Cavaleri,et al.  Assessment of Wind Quality for Oceanographic Modelling in Semi-Enclosed Basins , 2005 .

[12]  S. Hasselmann,et al.  Computations and Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer in a Gravity-Wave Spectrum. Part I: A New Method for Efficient Computations of the Exact Nonlinear Transfer Integral , 1985 .

[13]  Anastasios Papadopoulos,et al.  Implementation of a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean wave modeling system for assessing air-sea interaction over the Mediterranean Sea , 2017, Atmospheric Research.

[14]  P. Oddo,et al.  COUPLED WAVE-OCEAN MODELLING SYSTEM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA , 2013 .

[15]  Luigi Cavaleri,et al.  The calibration of wind and wave model data in the Mediterranean Sea , 2006 .

[16]  Peter A. E. M. Janssen,et al.  Wave-induced stress and the drag of air flow over sea waves , 1989 .

[17]  Luigi Cavaleri,et al.  Comparison of wind and wave measurements and models in the Western Mediterranean Sea , 2007 .

[18]  L. Cavaleri,et al.  The Henetus wave forecast system in the Adriatic Sea , 2011 .

[19]  Luigi Cavaleri,et al.  The characteristics of wind and wave fields modelled with different resolutions , 2003 .

[20]  P. Janssen.  Quasi-linear Theory of Wind-Wave Generation Applied to Wave Forecasting , 1991 .

[21]  A. Babanin,et al.  The international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the coastal hazards symposium , 2015, Ocean Dynamics.

[22]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Uncertainty of Ocean Wave Hindcasts Due to Wind Modeling , 1995 .

[23]  S. Ponce,et al.  Sensitivity of a wave model to wind variability , 1998 .

[24]  A. Grandi,et al.  Coupling hydrodynamic and wave models: first step and sensitivity experiments in the Mediterranean Sea , 2017, Ocean Dynamics.

[25]  R. Signell,et al.  Two-way air-sea coupling : A study of the adriatic , 2006 .

[26]  A. Benetazzo,et al.  On the use of a coupled ocean–atmosphere-wave model during an extreme Cold Air Outbreak over the Adriatic Sea , 2016 .

[27]  L. Cavaleri,et al.  Wind wave cast in the Mediterranean Sea , 1991 .

[28]  Piero Lionello,et al.  The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations , 2008 .

[29]  P. Leblond,et al.  Dynamics and modelling of ocean waves , 1995 .

[30]  Luigi Cavaleri,et al.  Accuracy of the modelled wind and wave fields in enclosed seas , 2004 .

[31]  Shuyi S. Chen,et al.  The CBLAST-Hurricane program and the next-generation fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean models for hurricane research and prediction , 2007 .

[32]  A. Sánchez-Arcilla,et al.  LIMITS OF OPERATIONAL WAVE PREDICTION IN THE NORTH-WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN , 2005 .

[33]  Jeremy S. Pal,et al.  An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation , 2010 .

[34]  A. Sairouní,et al.  Wave growth and forecasting in variable, semi-enclosed domains , 2014 .

[35]  Alvise Benetazzo,et al.  Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies , 2017 .

[36]  T. Barnett,et al.  Measurements of wind-wave growth and swell decay during the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) , 1973 .

[37]  G. Korres,et al.  A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean wave modeling system for the Mediterranean Sea: interactions and sensitivity to the resolved scales and mechanisms , 2015 .

[38]  Meng Xia,et al.  Dynamics of wave–current–surge interactions in Lake Michigan: A model comparison , 2017 .

[39]  Mark A. Donelan,et al.  The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones , 2014, Scientific Reports.

[40]  Hendrik L. Tolman,et al.  A Third-Generation Model for Wind Waves on Slowly Varying, Unsteady, and Inhomogeneous Depths and Currents , 1991 .

[41]  Marcos García Sotillo,et al.  A 44-year high-resolution ocean and atmospheric hindcast for the Mediterranean Basin developed within the HIPOCAS Project , 2008 .

[42]  T. Gerling,et al.  Partitioning Sequences and Arrays of Directional Ocean Wave Spectra into Component Wave Systems , 1992 .

[43]  Fabrice Ardhuin,et al.  Assessment of SARAL/AltiKa Wave Height Measurements Relative to Buoy, Jason-2, and Cryosat-2 Data , 2015 .

[44]  Jure Cedilnik,et al.  Modeling the ocean and atmosphere during an extreme bora event in northern Adriatic using one-way and two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling , 2016 .

[45]  K. Hasselmann,et al.  Computations and Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer in a Gravity-Wave Specturm. Part II: Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer for Application in Wave Models , 1985 .

[46]  Hendrik L. Tolman,et al.  Effects of Numerics on the Physics in a Third-Generation Wind-Wave Model , 1992 .

[47]  Amir Etemad-Shahidi,et al.  Wave modeling and extreme value analysis off the northern coast of the Persian Gulf , 2010 .

[48]  하태민.  Dynamics and Modelling of Ocean Waves , 2016 .

[49]  Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla,et al.  Evaluation of two atmospheric models for wind–wave modelling in the NW Mediterranean , 2007 .

[50]  L. Cavaleri,et al.  Nettuno: Analysis of a Wind and Wave Forecast System for the Mediterranean Sea , 2013 .

[51]  A. Bentamy,et al.  Improved near real time surface wind resolution over the Mediterranean Sea , 2006 .

[52]  L. Cavaleri,et al.  Large and small scale wave forecast in the Mediterranean Sea , 2009 .