Implementation of Subjective Probability Estimates in Army Intelligence Procedures: A Critical Review of Research Findings

Abstract : The purpose of this report is to critically examine the formulation and expression of uncertainty in both the tactical intelligence estimate of enemy threat and the evaluation of information contained in spot reports. A study was made of both the doctrinal procedures for expressing uncertainty (FM 30-5) and the research conducted to detect problems in implementing these procedures. Findings showed that current procedures which focus on the use of terms such as 'probable' and 'unlikely' to express uncertainty are ambiguous communicators for both the user and the recipient. The use of numerical subjective probability estimates as an alternative procedure (e.g., '.70' instead of 'likely') is explored by relating the psychological research on the use of subjective probability estimates with the need of Army intelligence analysts to unambiguously express uncertainty. It is concluded that there is sufficient evidence indicating the superiority of the numerical estimates to recommend a trial implementation of the use of numerical subjective probabilities. General guidelines are discussed for the incorporation of numerical estimates in the analysis and communications of Army intelligence.

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