On the assessment of uncertainty in risk diagrams

Abstract Risk matrices and risk diagrams are widely used tools for analyzing, assessing and visualizing risk in many industries, and are used extensively for risk management purposes. Despite their popularity and wide application, they have recently become the object of discussion and research in scientific environments, which can be seen as part of a wider focus on foundational issues in the risk analysis discipline. Identifying several serious limitations and problems with the risk matrix approach, various authors have proposed extensions, modifications and recommendations for their use. One issue which has been raised recently but has attracted relatively limited scientific attention is the consideration of uncertainty in risk diagrams, i.e. how to visually represent and communicate uncertainty. This paper first reviews the available proposals for this question. Subsequently, the strengths and weaknesses of these proposals are discussed. Finally, some new proposals are made on how to represent uncertainty in risk diagrams in practical applications.

[1]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[2]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Tools for an Extended Risk Assessment for Ropax Ship-Ship Collision , 2014 .

[3]  Marc Aerts,et al.  NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment , 2010 .

[4]  Terje Aven,et al.  On how to define, understand and describe risk , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[5]  Eric D. Smith,et al.  Risk matrix input data biases , 2009 .

[6]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  Uncertainty about probability: a reconciliation with the subjectivist viewpoint , 1996, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A.

[7]  Terje Aven,et al.  Safety oriented bubble diagrams vs. risk plots based on prediction intervals and strength-of-knowledge assessments. Which one to use as an alternative to risk matrices? , 2014 .

[8]  Terje Aven,et al.  The risk concept - historical and recent development trends , 2012, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[9]  Terje Aven,et al.  Practical implications of the new risk perspectives , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[10]  Stephen P. Cowley,et al.  Risk Matrices: Implied accuracy and false assumptions , 2010 .

[11]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  On a systematic perspective on risk for formal safety assessment (FSA) , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[12]  E. B. Abrahamsen and Terje Aven,et al.  Safety Oriented Bubble Diagrams in Project Risk Management , 2008 .

[13]  Floris Goerlandt,et al.  On the Reliability and Validity of Ship–Ship Collision Risk Analysis in Light of Different Perspectives on Risk , 2014 .

[14]  Dylan Evans,et al.  Problems with scoring methods and ordinal scales in risk assessment , 2010, IBM J. Res. Dev..

[15]  J. Tukey,et al.  Variations of Box Plots , 1978 .

[16]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[17]  S. R. Watson,et al.  The meaning of probability in probabilistic safety analysis , 1994 .

[18]  T. E. Maddison,et al.  A Simplified Method for the Estimation of Individual Risk , 2006 .

[19]  Stein Haugen,et al.  Perspectives on risk and the unforeseen , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[20]  Kristin Shrader-Frechette,et al.  Burying Uncertainty: Risk and the Case Against Geological Disposal of Nuclear Waste , 1993 .

[21]  Nijs Jan Duijm,et al.  Recommendations on the use and design of risk matrices , 2015 .

[22]  S. Campbell,et al.  Determining overall risk , 2005 .

[23]  Heather Douglas Inductive Risk and Values in Science , 2000, Philosophy of Science.

[24]  Paul R. Garvey,et al.  Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspective , 2008 .

[25]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[26]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Classification and Moral Evaluation of Uncertainties in Engineering Modeling , 2011, Sci. Eng. Ethics.

[27]  Richard S. Rudner The Scientist Qua Scientist Makes Value Judgments , 1953, Philosophy of Science.

[28]  Norman Fenton,et al.  Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks , 2012 .

[29]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,et al.  Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment , 1996 .

[30]  Christos A. Kontovas,et al.  Formal safety assessment: A critical review , 2009 .

[31]  G. Apostolakis The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. , 1990, Science.

[32]  Marvin Rausand,et al.  Ambiguity in risk assessment , 2015 .

[33]  Mike Pearson,et al.  Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future , 2022 .

[34]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of process. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[35]  A. Glendon,et al.  Human Safety and Risk Management, Second Edition , 2006 .

[36]  Floris Goerlandt,et al.  Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship–ship collision , 2013 .

[37]  Xin Ruan,et al.  Risk Matrix Integrating Risk Attitudes Based on Utility Theory , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[38]  Daniel Steel,et al.  Epistemic Values and the Argument from Inductive Risk* , 2010, Philosophy of Science.

[39]  Louis Anthony Cox,et al.  What's Wrong with Risk Matrices? , 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[40]  Stan Kaplan,et al.  The Words of Risk Analysis , 1997 .

[41]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[42]  Peter Burnap,et al.  On the origin of PCDS - (Probability consequence diagrams) , 2015 .

[43]  M Sam Mannan,et al.  Fuzzy risk matrix. , 2008, Journal of hazardous materials.

[44]  Philip Thomas,et al.  The Risk of Using Risk Matrices , 2013 .

[45]  T. Aven,et al.  Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[46]  T. Aven,et al.  EXPRESSING AND COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS , 2009 .

[47]  William M. K. Trochim,et al.  Research methods knowledge base , 2001 .

[48]  Douglas W. Hubbard,et al.  The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It , 2009 .

[49]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: A case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship–ship collision , 2015 .

[50]  Heather Douglas Science, Policy, and the Value-Free Ideal , 2009 .

[51]  Terje Aven,et al.  Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[52]  E. S. Levine Improving risk matrices: the advantages of logarithmically scaled axes , 2012 .

[53]  T. Aven,et al.  How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting , 2013 .

[54]  H. Ni,et al.  Some extensions on risk matrix approach , 2010 .

[55]  Rikard Levin,et al.  Uncertainty in risk assessment - contents and modes of communication , 2005 .