Improving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the Delphi technique.

Abstract Previous research findings suggest that group judgment is superior to individual judgment, although groups fail to reach their full potential because of problems associated with the interaction process. Thus, groups perform at a level generally better than the competence of their average members but rarely as well as their most proficient members. The current study explores two methods of group judgment making which have been developed to reduce the discrepancy between potential and actual group performance: social judgment analysis and the Delphi technique. These two methods are compared in a controlled experimental setting with regard to their potential both to significantly reduce group disagreement and to provide accurate judgments. The two methods were found to be equal in the quality of judgments produced. Social judgment analysis, however, was a significantly better method of reducing disagreement than the Delphi technique.

[1]  Abraham Kaplan,et al.  The Prediction of Social and Technological Events , 1950 .

[2]  G. William Walster,et al.  A comparative study of differences in subjective likelihood estimates made by individuals, interacting groups, Delphi groups, and nominal groups☆ , 1973 .

[3]  M. Kaplan,et al.  Human judgment and decision processes , 1975 .

[4]  A. Wesman,et al.  Educational Uses of Tests with Disadvantaged Students. , 1975 .

[5]  T. L. Kelley.  The applicability of the Spearman-Brown formula for the measurement of reliability. , 1925 .

[6]  R. Jessor,et al.  Problem Behavior and Psychosocial Development: A Longitudinal Study , 1978 .

[7]  Robert B. Zajonc,et al.  A Note on Group Judgements and Group Size , 1962 .

[8]  Hal W. Hendrick,et al.  Adequacy of Group Decisions as a Function of the Decision-Making Process , 1972 .

[9]  C. I. Mosier.  I. Problems and Designs of Cross-Validation 1 , 1951 .

[10]  A. Jenness,et al.  The role of discussion in changing opinion regarding a matter of fact. , 1932 .

[11]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[12]  F. Downton,et al.  PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS , 1972 .

[13]  Hugo Münsterberg.  Psychology and Social Sanity , 1914 .

[14]  N. Dalkey,et al.  An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts , 1963 .

[15]  K. R. Hammond.  Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. , 1955, Psychological review.

[16]  Robert R. Blake,et al.  Group Problem Solving Effectiveness under Conditions of Pooling vs. Interaction , 1963 .

[17]  E. Tolman.  Purposive behavior in animals and men , 1932 .

[18]  E. Tolman.  Cognitive maps in rats and men. , 1948, Psychological review.

[19]  Richard S. Bruce,et al.  Group Judgments in the Fields of Lifted Weights and Visual Discrimination , 1935 .

[20]  E. Tolman,et al.  The organism and the causal texture of the environment. , 1935 .

[21]  A. Delbecq,et al.  Nominal Versus Interacting Group Processes for Committee Decision-Making Effectiveness , 1971 .

[22]  J. Stroop.  Is the judgment of the group better than that of the average member of the group , 1932 .

[23]  M. Kaplan,et al.  Human judgment and decision processes in applied settings , 1977 .

[24]  E. Brunswik.  Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. , 1955, Psychological review.

[25]  E. Brunswik.  Organismic achievement and environmental probability. , 1943 .

[26]  S. F. Klugman,et al.  Group and individual judgments for anticipated events. , 1947, The Journal of social psychology.

[27]  R. Tryon.  Cluster Analysis , 1939 .

[28]  M. Smith.  Group judgments in the field of personality traits. , 1931 .

[29]  Robert L. Thorndike,et al.  The Effect of Discussion upon the Correctness of Group Decisions, when the Factor of Majority Influence is Allowed For , 1938 .

[30]  T. R. Stewart,et al.  10 – SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY , 1975 .

[31]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Quality of Group Judgment , 1977 .

[32]  J. Elashoff,et al.  Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. , 1975 .

[33]  J. Rohrbaugh,et al.  1 – SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY: APPLICATIONS IN POLICY FORMATION , 1977 .

[34]  J. Hackman,et al.  Group tasks, group interaction process, and group performance effectiveness: A review and proposed integration , 1975 .

[35]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The design of a policy Delphi , 1970 .

[36]  B. B. Smith.  The validity and reliability of group judgments. , 1941 .

[37]  N. Cole.  BIAS IN SELECTION , 1973 .

[38]  M. G. Preston.  Note on the reliability and the validity of the group judgment. , 1938 .

[39]  Hal W. Hendrick,et al.  Problem Solving in Different Sized Groups. , 1971 .

[40]  K. Gordon,et al.  Group judgments in the field of lifted weights. , 1924 .

[41]  W. M. Timmons.  Can the Product Superiority of Discussors be Attributed to Averaging or Majority Influences , 1942 .