Reliability Modeling for the Advanced Electric Power Grid

The advanced electric power grid promises a self-healing infrastructure using distributed, coordinated, power electronics control. One promising power electronics device, the Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS), can modify power flow locally within a grid. Embedded computers within the FACTS devices, along with the links connecting them, form a communication and control network that can dynamically change the power grid to achieve higher dependability. The goal is to reroute power in the event of transmission line failure. Such a system, over a widespread area, is a cyber-physical system. The overall reliability of the grid is a function of the respective reliabilities of its two major subsystems, namely, the FACTS network and the physical components that comprise the infrastructure. This paper presents a mathematical model, based on the Markov chain imbeddable structure, for the overall reliability of the grid. The model utilizes a priori knowledge of reliability estimates for the FACTS devices and the communications links among them to predict the overall reliability of the power grid.

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