Early Detection of Increased Intracranial Pressure Episodes in Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation in an Adult and in a Pediatric Cohort

Objective: A model for early detection of episodes of increased intracranial pressure in traumatic brain injury patients has been previously developed and validated based on retrospective adult patient data from the multicenter Brain-IT database. The purpose of the present study is to validate this early detection model in different cohorts of recently treated adult and pediatric traumatic brain injury patients. Design: Prognostic modeling. Noninterventional, observational, retrospective study. Setting and Patients: The adult validation cohort comprised recent traumatic brain injury patients from San Gerardo Hospital in Monza (n = 50), Leuven University Hospital (n = 26), Antwerp University Hospital (n = 19), Tübingen University Hospital (n = 18), and Southern General Hospital in Glasgow (n = 8). The pediatric validation cohort comprised patients from neurosurgical and intensive care centers in Edinburgh and Newcastle (n = 79). Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: The model’s performance was evaluated with respect to discrimination, calibration, overall performance, and clinical usefulness. In the recent adult validation cohort, the model retained excellent performance as in the original study. In the pediatric validation cohort, the model retained good discrimination and a positive net benefit, albeit with a performance drop in the remaining criteria. Conclusions: The obtained external validation results confirm the robustness of the model to predict future increased intracranial pressure events 30 minutes in advance, in adult and pediatric traumatic brain injury patients. These results are a large step toward an early warning system for increased intracranial pressure that can be generally applied. Furthermore, the sparseness of this model that uses only two routinely monitored signals as inputs (intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure) is an additional asset.

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