Application of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) to food spoilage: Principles and methodology

Abstract Background Management of food safety at the international level has been moved towards a risk-based approach with regulators and food business operators (FBOs) around the world adopting the risk analysis framework. Despite the extensive use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) within the context of food safety, the application of such a risk-based approach for food spoilage is limited. Scope and approach The present study provides a detailed description of QMRA structure applied for assessing the risk of spoilage in foods by presenting the main principles, the methodological standards and the application scheme for a risk-based food quality management. Key findings and conclusions The output of QMRA for a quality hazard such as food spoilage can provide a transparent scientific basis to support food quality management decisions by food business operators (FBOs) while replacing empirical-based decisions. Probabilistic QMRA models for food spoilage can simulate what-if scenarios with different combinations of settings regarding product formulation, process and storage conditions, expiration dating etc. and assess their impact on the risk of spoilage. This can support the FBOs in selecting an effective expiration date (use-by or best before date), which leads to the maximum exploitation of the “true” product's shelf life, while minimizing the risk of spoilage to an acceptable (by the managers) level, in accordance to the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP) for food safety. Furthermore, QMRA can provide the elements for a cost-benefit analogy in relation to the identified mitigation strategies for reducing the risk of spoilage and/or extending the shelf life of foods.