The Impact of Cognitive Diversity on Crisis Negotiations

This paper reports on a series of experiments designed to assess the impact of grouping decision makers by level of cognitive complexity on the outcomes they attain in crisis negotiations. The participants—University of Maryland undergraduates who took roles in a simulated international hostage crisis—used a computer decision support system and a controlled network environment for communications. The goal of the experiments was to better understand the dynamics that lead certain types of groupings to have greater success in negotiations, and that lead certain groups of adversaries to achieve more mutually beneficial outcomes such as compromise and agreement. The findings point to a positive relationship between the level of homogeneity in cognitive complexity among decision makers and the achievement of positive outcomes in crisis negotiations.

[1]  Peter Suedfeld,et al.  Changes in Integrative Complexity Prior to Surprise Attacks , 1988 .

[2]  Katia P. Sycara,et al.  Machine learning for intelligent support of conflict resolution , 1993, Decis. Support Syst..

[3]  Gregory E. Kersten NEGO - Group decision support system , 1985, Inf. Manag..

[4]  Stan Matwin,et al.  Negoplan: an expert system shell for negotiation support , 1989, IEEE Expert.

[5]  H. M. Schroder,et al.  Conceptual systems and personality organization , 1963 .

[6]  Daniel Druckman,et al.  Situational Levers of Position Change: Further Explorations , 1995 .

[7]  Tung Bui,et al.  Building DSS for negotiators: a three-step design process , 1992, Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[8]  Sarit Kraus,et al.  A strategic negotiations model with applications to an international crisis , 1993, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[9]  B. Tuckman Integrative Complexity: Its Measurement and Relation to Creativity , 1966 .

[10]  Sarit Kraus,et al.  Modeling a hostage crisis: formalizing the negotiation process , 1990 .

[11]  H. M. Schroder,et al.  Reliability and Validity of the Paragraph Completion Test: Theoretical and Empirical Notes , 1972 .

[12]  Nehemia Geva,et al.  The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform , 1997, American Political Science Review.

[13]  J. Kagel,et al.  Handbook of Experimental Economics , 1997 .

[14]  Sarit Kraus,et al.  Multiagent Negotiation under Time Constraints , 1995, Artif. Intell..

[15]  Sarit Kraus,et al.  GENIE: A decision support system for crisis negotiations , 1995, Decis. Support Syst..

[16]  Sarit Kraus,et al.  The Negotiation Training Model , 1998 .

[17]  Paul Gray,et al.  Assessing GDSS empirical research , 1990 .

[18]  P. H. Lindsay Human Information Processing , 1977 .

[19]  L. Thompson Negotiation behavior and outcomes: Empirical evidence and theoretical issues. , 1990 .

[20]  Alan Miller Conceptual Matching Models and Interactional Research in Education , 1981 .

[21]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives , 1996 .

[22]  Brian de Vries,et al.  Conceptual/Integrative Complexity and Attitudes Toward Capital Punishment , 1987 .

[23]  Peter Suedfeld,et al.  Integrative Complexity of Communications in International Crises , 1977 .

[24]  Margaret G. Hermann,et al.  Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders , 1980 .

[25]  J. S. Vannoy GENERALITY OF COGNITIVE COMPLEXITY-SIMPLICITY AS A PERSONALITY CONSTRUCT. , 1965, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[26]  Nasir Ghiaseddin Characteristics of a successful DSS user's needs vs. builder's needs , 1987 .

[27]  Margaret G. Hermann,et al.  Rethinking Democracy and International Peace: Perspectives from Political Psychology , 1995 .

[28]  Daniel Druckman,et al.  Determinants of Compromising Behavior in Negotiation , 1994 .

[29]  Dhanesh K. Samarasan Analysis, modeling, and the management of international negotiations , 1993 .

[30]  P. Suedfeld,et al.  Revolutionary leaders: Long-term success as a function of changes in conceptual complexity. , 1976 .

[31]  Michael Brecher,et al.  Crises in the twentieth century , 1988 .

[32]  Tawfik Jelassi,et al.  Negotiation support systems: an overview of design issues and existing software , 1989, Decis. Support Syst..

[33]  S. Streufert,et al.  Behavior in the complex environment. , 1978 .

[34]  Sarit Kraus,et al.  The Hostage Crisis Simulation , 1992 .

[35]  J. Wilkenfeld,et al.  A Study of Crisis , 1997 .

[36]  Alexander Kouzmin,et al.  Crisis Decision Making , 1993 .

[37]  Crises in World Politics , 1982 .